Will Milton Keynes Dons FC win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (58%) · Yes at 100¢ · $766 held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 58%

Total Value

$765.95

Combined PnL

$52.55

Smart Money Entry

73.7¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$756.82

Total Shares767

Combined PnL+$103.44

No5 traders

Total Value$9.11

Total Shares485

Combined PnL-$50.88

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 95.4¢	$288.38	$253.63	-$34.75	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 56.4¢	$73.36	$124.8	+$51.44	56% 463-370 (833)
NM NM-P	Yesavg 64¢	$115.93	$121.84	+$5.91	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Yesavg 56¢	$68.88	$118.08	+$49.2	48% 286-306 (592)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$39.28	$66.98	+$27.71	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 95.4¢	$48.77	$49.73	+$0.96	40% 137-209 (346)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$18.79	$21.75	+$2.96	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 2.1¢	$6.5	$7.59	+$1.08	47% 895-994 (1889)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$0.65	$0.59	-$0.05	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$3.08	$0.45	-$2.63	35% 440-800 (1240)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$47.61	$0.33	-$47.28	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$2.15	$0.15	-$2	42% 995-1363 (2358)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$288.38

Value

$253.63

PnL

-$34.75

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$73.36

Value

$124.8

PnL

+$51.44

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$115.93

Value

$121.84

PnL

+$5.91

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Yes

Invested

$68.88

Value

$118.08

PnL

+$49.2

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.28

Value

$66.98

PnL

+$27.71

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

WagerWizard<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.77

Value

$49.73

PnL

+$0.96

Record

40%

137-209 (346)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.79

Value

$21.75

PnL

+$2.96

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$6.5

Value

$7.59

PnL

+$1.08

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$3.08

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$2.63

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$47.61

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$47.28

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$2

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.