Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 67%
$11.9K
$3.1K
50.4¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 68.1¢ | $4.9K | $5.2K | +$279.56 | 72% 2286-872 (3158) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 24.7¢ | $1.3K | $3.5K | +$2.3K | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
 RN1 | Overavg 31.2¢ | $1.3K | $2.0K | +$788.3 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
 ZaiZoiBele | Overavg 98.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$270.58 | 80% 4969-1228 (6197) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $7.8 | $7.22 | -$0.59 | 55% 8110-6552 (14662) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.82 | $1.32 | -$1.5 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
 LonnieHawkinss<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $1.4 | $1.3 | -$0.11 | 51% 1798-1702 (3500) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Underavg 24¢ | $1.2 | $1.1 | -$0.1 | 63% 1083-626 (1709) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 3¢ | $0.89 | $0.01 | -$0.87 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
Invested
$4,900.21
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$279.56
Record
72%
2286-872 (3158)
Invested
$1,260.46
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$2.3K
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
RN1Invested
$1,250.97
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$788.3
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$1,459.13
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$270.58
Record
80%
4969-1228 (6197)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$7.22
PnL
-$0.59
Record
55%
8110-6552 (14662)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.82
Value
$1.32
PnL
-$1.5
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
LonnieHawkinss<$100Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$0.11
Record
51%
1798-1702 (3500)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.1
PnL
-$0.1
Record
63%
1083-626 (1709)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.89
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.87
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.