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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.

Wimborne Town FC vs. Crawley Town FC: O/U 2.5

Resolved Under. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$-11.4K

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$232.25

Total Shares232

Combined PnL+$95.75

Over3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares19,718

Combined PnL$-11.4K

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 68.4¢	$887.22	$1.2K	-$280.37	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
└ Under leg	Underavg 68.4¢	$796.65	$1.2K	+$368.29
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$462.4	—	-$648.66
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 39¢	$44.86	$115.03	+$70.17	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 41¢	$71.34	$71.34	-$1.03	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 42.1¢	$16.37	$38.83	+$22.46	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Overavg 58¢	$11.2K	—	$-11.2K	53% 6640-5923 (12563)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 41¢	$2.89	$7.05	+$4.16	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 60.4¢	$244.15	—	-$244.15	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	—	—	+$0	56% 195-151 (346)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$887.22

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$280.37

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Both legs:

Under$796.6568.4¢+$368.29

Over$462.458¢-$648.66

Invested

$44.86

Value

$115.03

PnL

+$70.17

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$71.34

Value

$71.34

PnL

-$1.03

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

Invested

$16.37

Value

$38.83

PnL

+$22.46

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Invested

$11,202.34

Value

—

PnL

$-11.2K

Record

53%

6640-5923 (12563)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$2.89

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$4.16

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$244.15

Value

—

PnL

-$244.15

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4a20ae68...0057a4

Slug

efa-wim1-cra-2026-11-08-total-2pt5

Traders in this Market

Flaznorp

Arbitrage — excluded

GoalLineGhost

Under — $115.03

LightParadox

Under — $71.34

Venusian

Under — $38.83

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over — $0

MadridTime

Under — $7.05

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over — $0

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Over — $0

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