Bromley FC vs. Rotherham United FC: O/U 2.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 59¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 7

Over59¢Under41¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

58.2¢ → 58.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares19,679

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Under4 traders

Total Value$32.61

Total Shares70

Combined PnL+$3.04

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Overavg 58.2¢	$10.8K	$9.5K	$-1.3K	53% 6328-5609 (11937)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 57¢	$539	$482.26	-$56.74	50% 28899-28703 (57602)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 57.7¢	$86.5	$76.5	-$10	58% 47475-34259 (81734)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Overavg 58¢	$29.51	$29.77	+$0.25	51% 2056-1990 (4046)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 42.2¢	$12.15	$14.1	+$1.95	48% 1756-1884 (3640)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$8.54	$8.44	-$0.1	51% 27051-25620 (52671)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 43.2¢	$5.97	$6.77	+$0.8	49% 1821-1900 (3721)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 43.2¢	$2.91	$3.3	+$0.39	50% 1834-1824 (3658)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over

Invested

$10,790.58

Value

$9.5K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

6328-5609 (11937)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$539

Value

$482.26

PnL

-$56.74

Record

50%

28899-28703 (57602)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$86.5

Value

$76.5

PnL

-$10

Record

58%

47475-34259 (81734)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Over

Invested

$29.51

Value

$29.77

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

2056-1990 (4046)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.15

Value

$14.1

PnL

+$1.95

Record

48%

1756-1884 (3640)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.54

Value

$8.44

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

27051-25620 (52671)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.97

Value

$6.77

PnL

+$0.8

Record

49%

1821-1900 (3721)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.91

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.39

Record

50%

1834-1824 (3658)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.