Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group A

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga Gaming (46%) · Nemiga Gaming at 100¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 11

Zero Tenacity<1¢Nemiga Gaming>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga Gaming

Consensus Traders

Nemiga Gaming 46%

Total Value

$33.6K

Combined PnL

$-4.4K

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Zero Tenacity0%

Nemiga Gaming100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga Gaming6 traders

Total Value$31.0K

Total Shares30,798

Combined PnL+$133.12

Zero Tenacity7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares15,171

Combined PnL$-4.5K

Nemiga Gaming — 46%Zero Tenacity — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNemiga Gaming 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrZero Tenacity 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Zero Tenacity 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	Nemiga Gamingavg 99.9¢	$24.7K	$24.7K	+$12.35	97% 67-2 (69)
RA RandomVibecoder	Nemiga Gamingavg 62.1¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$105.6	48% 490-531 (1021)
AM ameisgoat11CTR	Zero Tenacityavg 57.1¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	+$12.58	26% 180-518 (698)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Nemiga Gamingavg 72.6¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$185.82	56% 3819-2985 (6804)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Nemiga Gamingavg 59.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$67.24	9% 19-201 (220)
PL plustiCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 38¢	$4.6K	$240	$-4.3K	24% 11-34 (45)
SU suitcase6628	Nemiga Gamingavg 80¢	$162.1	$134.47	-$27.63	65% 175-96 (271)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 41.8¢	$31.86	$16.83	-$15.03	34% 233-457 (690)
MA madar78CTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 6¢	$27.12	$6.87	+$1.99	35% 18-34 (52)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 48¢	$154.63	$6.44	-$148.19	— 10-6 (16)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Nemiga Gamingavg 76.2¢	$3.02	$3.96	+$0.94	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 45.8¢	$28.63	$1.25	-$27.38	47% 35-40 (75)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 55¢	$27.5	$1	-$26.5	53% 5511-4919 (10430)

pvc975

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$24,671.87

Value

$24.7K

PnL

+$12.35

Record

97%

67-2 (69)

RandomVibecoder

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$3,367.08

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$105.6

Record

48%

490-531 (1021)

ameisgoat11CTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$2,660.65

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$12.58

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,364.65

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$185.82

Record

56%

3819-2985 (6804)

TommyLeePeeca

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$1,280.21

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$67.24

Record

19-201 (220)

plustiCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$4,559.99

Value

$240

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

24%

11-34 (45)

suitcase6628

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$162.1

Value

$134.47

PnL

-$27.63

Record

65%

175-96 (271)

sentrioCTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$31.86

Value

$16.83

PnL

-$15.03

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

madar78CTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$27.12

Value

$6.87

PnL

+$1.99

Record

35%

18-34 (52)

JuiceFarmCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$154.63

Value

$6.44

PnL

-$148.19

Record

—

10-6 (16)

Flaznorp<$100

Nemiga Gaming

Invested

$3.02

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$0.94

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$28.63

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$27.38

Record

47%

35-40 (75)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$27.5

Value

PnL

-$26.5

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga Gaming at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga Gaming

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNemiga Gaming 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrZero Tenacity 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Zero Tenacity 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.