Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs GamerLegion (BO3) - EPL Masters Playoffs

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold GamerLegion (80%) · GamerLegion at 80¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 5

Yellow Submarine20¢GamerLegion80¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

GamerLegion

Consensus Traders

GamerLegion 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$211.72

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 80¢

+6% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

12 of 15 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yellow Submarine20%

GamerLegion80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GamerLegion12 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares7,727

Combined PnL+$443.64

Yellow Submarine3 traders

Total Value$225.92

Total Shares1,620

Combined PnL-$231.92

GamerLegion — 80%Yellow Submarine — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on GamerLegion. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGamerLegion 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGamerLegion 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedGamerLegion 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000GamerLegion 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM ameisgoat11	GamerLegionavg 74.7¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$92.96	52% 8756-7964 (16720)
VI vibing123ARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 28¢	$2.9K	$1.7K	$-1.2K	51% 1625-1536 (3161)
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 71.4¢	$714.42	$860	+$145.58
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 28¢	$2.2K	$851.26	$-1.3K
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	GamerLegionavg 78.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$16.73	52% 14480-13177 (27657)
CA calculate10	GamerLegionavg 78.4¢	$2.3K	$1.0K	+$29.67	54% 1312-1136 (2448)
FE ferrariChampions2026	GamerLegionavg 74.7¢	$948.55	$988.23	+$39.68	42% 7992-11181 (19173)
PA panpidaras1	GamerLegionavg 75.9¢	$318.21	$360.37	+$42.17	48% 267-284 (551)
OM omnibus-076daa	GamerLegionavg 74¢	$306.96	$356.73	+$49.76	50% 21156-21414 (42570)
VeryLucky888	GamerLegionavg 66.9¢	$551.27	$344	+$95.16	58% 46667-33629 (80296)
GA Gaditima	GamerLegionavg 66.3¢	$232	$301	+$69	48% 7370-8076 (15446)
BU BunnycatCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 28.3¢	$309.87	$153.39	-$156.48	66% 116-59 (175)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 28.8¢	$193.14	$140.19	-$52.95	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
└ GamerLegion leg	GamerLegionavg 67.4¢	$74.3	$94.83	+$20.53
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 28.8¢	$118.83	$45.36	-$73.47
poshposh	GamerLegionavg 81.4¢	$131.47	$138.88	+$7.41	57% 12692-9758 (22450)
CI cigarettes<$100	GamerLegionavg 83¢	$83	$80.5	-$2.5	53% 23478-20703 (44181)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 29¢	$116	$44	-$72	51% 1898-1850 (3748)
FL Flaznorp<$100	GamerLegionavg 72.2¢	$33.26	$36.85	+$3.59	51% 25716-24429 (50145)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 25.8¢	$31.97	$28.53	-$3.44	47% 11685-13388 (25073)
SE sentrio<$100	GamerLegionavg 86¢	$18.83	$18.83	+$0	50% 25811-25501 (51312)

ameisgoat11

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,788.62

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$92.96

Record

52%

8756-7964 (16720)

vibing123ARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,881.27

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

1625-1536 (3161)

Both legs:

GamerLegion$714.4271.4¢+$145.58

Yellow Submarine$2,166.8528¢$-1.3K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

GamerLegion

Invested

$1,227.1

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$16.73

Record

52%

14480-13177 (27657)

calculate10

GamerLegion

Invested

$2,312.25

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$29.67

Record

54%

1312-1136 (2448)

ferrariChampions2026

GamerLegion

Invested

$948.55

Value

$988.23

PnL

+$39.68

Record

42%

7992-11181 (19173)

panpidaras1

GamerLegion

Invested

$318.21

Value

$360.37

PnL

+$42.17

Record

48%

267-284 (551)

omnibus-076daa

GamerLegion

Invested

$306.96

Value

$356.73

PnL

+$49.76

Record

50%

21156-21414 (42570)

VeryLucky888

GamerLegion

Invested

$551.27

Value

$344

PnL

+$95.16

Record

58%

46667-33629 (80296)

Gaditima

GamerLegion

Invested

$232

Value

$301

PnL

+$69

Record

48%

7370-8076 (15446)

BunnycatCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$309.87

Value

$153.39

PnL

-$156.48

Record

66%

116-59 (175)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$193.14

Value

$140.19

PnL

-$52.95

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

Both legs:

GamerLegion$74.367.4¢+$20.53

Yellow Submarine$118.8328.8¢-$73.47

poshposh

GamerLegion

Invested

$131.47

Value

$138.88

PnL

+$7.41

Record

57%

12692-9758 (22450)

cigarettes<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$83

Value

$80.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

53%

23478-20703 (44181)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$116

Value

$44

PnL

-$72

Record

51%

1898-1850 (3748)

Flaznorp<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$33.26

Value

$36.85

PnL

+$3.59

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$31.97

Value

$28.53

PnL

-$3.44

Record

47%

11685-13388 (25073)

sentrio<$100

GamerLegion

Invested

$18.83

Value

$18.83

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25811-25501 (51312)

Research grade

NeutralGamerLegion at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

GamerLegion

12 of 15 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on GamerLegion. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGamerLegion 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGamerLegion 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedGamerLegion 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000GamerLegion 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that GamerLegion wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.