Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner

35 of 62 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (56%) · Team Spirit at 100¢ · $248K held · ends Oct 30

Team Spirit>99¢PARIVISION<1¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 56%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$248.1K

Combined PnL

$-10.8K

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 100¢

+76% since entry · 35 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

35 of 62 top traders (56%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Spirit100%

PARIVISION0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit35 traders

Total Value$159.6K

Total Shares228,286

Combined PnL+$29.8K

PARIVISION27 traders

Total Value$73.6K

Total Shares242,315

Combined PnL$-40.6K

Team Spirit — 56%PARIVISION — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhct	Team Spiritavg 66.2¢	$31.8K	$32.4K	+$617.07	54% 494-424 (918)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Spiritavg 42.6¢	$19.1K	$20.8K	+$1.7K	58% 897-650 (1547)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	PARIVISIONavg 58.1¢	$19.2K	$17.7K	$-1.5K	58% 1860-1337 (3197)
PA para-VisionCTR	PARIVISIONavg 58¢	$16.4K	$15.2K	$-1.3K	56% 209-164 (373)
CC cc9999	Team Spiritavg 99.9¢	$14.3K	$14.3K	+$7.14	96% 1232-50 (1282)
Medo3D	Team Spiritavg 42.2¢	$11.7K	$12.9K	+$1.2K	40% 168-252 (420)
GX gxxyy	Team Spiritavg 68.4¢	$8.9K	$11.3K	+$2.4K	69% 492-218 (710)
FA fantasy7788CTR	PARIVISIONavg 60.3¢	$10.9K	$9.7K	$-1.2K	43% 86-115 (201)
Skritopoolniy	Team Spiritavg 41.9¢	$7.3K	$8.1K	+$799.49	48% 604-645 (1249)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872	Team Spiritavg 68¢	$6.8K	$7.2K	+$450	43% 335-450 (785)
RA RandomVibecoder	Team Spiritavg 54¢	$4.4K	$7.2K	+$2.8K	49% 801-846 (1647)
CyberScore.liveCTR	PARIVISIONavg 39.2¢	$14.0K	$6.8K	$-7.2K	46% 404-473 (877)
BU Bunnycat	Team Spiritavg 79.9¢	$6.1K	$6.6K	+$575.24	68% 81-38 (119)
BE Bettong	Team Spiritavg 73.4¢	$8.9K	$5.5K	+$333.65	55% 335-269 (604)
QW qwerqr1251251	Team Spiritavg 81.8¢	$6.8K	$4.9K	+$1.1K	69% 296-130 (426)
minjiARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 31.8¢	$3.8K	$4.2K	+$359.83	52% 1790-1645 (3435)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 50¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$675
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 31.8¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$315.17
0xheavy888ARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 33.6¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$32.94	56% 7053-5654 (12707)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 33.6¢	$3.2K	$2.7K	-$433.67
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$400.73
BA babyboy9	Team Spiritavg 70.4¢	$8.3K	$4.0K	+$745.6	54% 349-293 (642)
GE GeorgeRe	Team Spiritavg 41.3¢	$3.5K	$3.9K	+$442.75	54% 1078-933 (2011)
FK fkAL	Team Spiritavg 39.5¢	$1.9K	$3.9K	+$2.0K	63% 2025-1197 (3222)
MO momijidanCTR	PARIVISIONavg 50.9¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$178.84	51% 196-185 (381)
NA natorgatorontop	Team Spiritavg 40¢	$3.1K	$3.6K	+$497.57	60% 274-180 (454)
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	PARIVISIONavg 47.3¢	$24.0K	$3.6K	$-20.5K	49% 1156-1206 (2362)
TokennCTR	PARIVISIONavg 57.8¢	$3.7K	$3.4K	-$278.07	48% 655-707 (1362)
DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 30.6¢	$3.6K	$3.1K	-$569.36	53% 2056-1820 (3876)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 57.5¢	$1.4K	$2.2K	+$742.89
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 30.6¢	$2.2K	$907.32	$-1.3K

pnhct

Team Spirit

Invested

$31,828.78

Value

$32.4K

PnL

+$617.07

Record

54%

494-424 (918)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Spirit

Invested

$19,065.6

Value

$20.8K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

58%

897-650 (1547)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$19,232.12

Value

$17.7K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

58%

1860-1337 (3197)

para-VisionCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$16,433.3

Value

$15.2K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

56%

209-164 (373)

cc9999

Team Spirit

Invested

$14,262.31

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$7.14

Record

96%

1232-50 (1282)

Medo3D

Team Spirit

Invested

$11,657.47

Value

$12.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

40%

168-252 (420)

gxxyy

Team Spirit

Invested

$8,909.27

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

69%

492-218 (710)

fantasy7788CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$10,900.47

Value

$9.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

43%

86-115 (201)

Skritopoolniy

Team Spirit

Invested

$7,322

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$799.49

Record

48%

604-645 (1249)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,799.99

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$450

Record

43%

335-450 (785)

RandomVibecoder

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,393.55

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

49%

801-846 (1647)

CyberScore.liveCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$13,999.91

Value

$6.8K

PnL

$-7.2K

Record

46%

404-473 (877)

Bunnycat

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,070.96

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$575.24

Record

68%

81-38 (119)

Bettong

Team Spirit

Invested

$8,857.29

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$333.65

Record

55%

335-269 (604)

qwerqr1251251

Team Spirit

Invested

$6,773.63

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

69%

296-130 (426)

minjiARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,813.14

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$359.83

Record

52%

1790-1645 (3435)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$1,50050¢+$675

PARIVISION$2,313.1431.8¢-$315.17

0xheavy888ARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$4,196.21

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$32.94

Record

56%

7053-5654 (12707)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$3,176.9433.6¢-$433.67

Team Spirit$1,019.2751¢+$400.73

babyboy9

Team Spirit

Invested

$8,282.45

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$745.6

Record

54%

349-293 (642)

GeorgeRe

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,504.31

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$442.75

Record

54%

1078-933 (2011)

fkAL

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,867.2

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

63%

2025-1197 (3222)

momijidanCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,443.52

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$178.84

Record

51%

196-185 (381)

natorgatorontop

Team Spirit

Invested

$3,062

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$497.57

Record

60%

274-180 (454)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$24,009.15

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-20.5K

Record

49%

1156-1206 (2362)

TokennCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,722

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$278.07

Record

48%

655-707 (1362)

DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,641.26

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$569.36

Record

53%

2056-1820 (3876)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$1,421.6957.5¢+$742.89

PARIVISION$2,219.5730.6¢$-1.3K

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

35 of 62 top traders (56%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.