Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 1 Winner

34 of 58 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (59%) · Team Liquid at 80¢ · $268K held · ends Oct 30

Team Liquid80¢OG20¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 59%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$267.9K

Combined PnL

$-3.9K

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 79.5¢

+12% since entry · 34 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

34 of 58 top traders (59%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid80%

OG21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid34 traders

Total Value$167.1K

Total Shares228,598

Combined PnL+$2.8K

OG24 traders

Total Value$35.6K

Total Shares123,955

Combined PnL$-6.7K

Team Liquid — 59%OG — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

32 traders

Top 2 hold 29%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on Team Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 29% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Liquid 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpTeam Liquid 91% · 11

Aligned

ctrTeam Liquid 58% · 43

Aligned

Hand-pickedTeam Liquid 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Team Liquid 63% · 51

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhctARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 71¢	$38.4K	$38.7K	+$263.7	54% 496-424 (920)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 71¢	$27.4K	$30.7K	+$3.3K
└ OG leg	OGavg 28.2¢	$11.0K	$8.0K	$-3.0K
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Liquidavg 69.3¢	$23.5K	$23.8K	+$239.13	58% 898-651 (1549)
Sunshine.Smile	Team Liquidavg 68.4¢	$20.4K	$20.9K	+$1.8K	58% 1860-1339 (3199)
GX gxxyyARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 73¢	$13.3K	$15.0K	+$1.7K	69% 493-219 (712)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 73¢	$10.8K	$10.3K	-$449.56
└ OG leg	OGavg 16¢	$2.5K	$4.6K	+$2.2K
PA para-Vision	Team Liquidavg 70¢	$14.3K	$14.3K	-$0	56% 209-165 (374)
cat3xcat3x	Team Liquidavg 70¢	$11.3K	$11.3K	-$7.37	56% 330-261 (591)
GE GeorgeRe	Team Liquidavg 70.1¢	$8.5K	$10.0K	+$1.5K	54% 1080-933 (2013)
relativesignificanceCTR	OGavg 31¢	$9.3K	$8.9K	$-3.1K	57% 99-76 (175)
QW qwerqr1251251	Team Liquidavg 75.2¢	$15.6K	$8.5K	+$559.09	70% 297-130 (427)
YA yadens	Team Liquidavg 77.6¢	$21.4K	$8.1K	$-3.6K	70% 157-67 (224)
RA RandomVibecoder	Team Liquidavg 64¢	$6.9K	$7.9K	+$1.0K	49% 803-846 (1649)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Team Liquidavg 69.9¢	$33.7K	$7.9K	+$3.0K	68% 77-36 (113)
0xheavy888	Team Liquidavg 74.8¢	$6.8K	$6.5K	-$338.11	55% 7053-5657 (12710)
minji	Team Liquidavg 71.2¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$6.48	52% 1790-1647 (3437)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	Team Liquidavg 78.6¢	$7.3K	$5.4K	-$336.49	60% 525-343 (868)
DamwonChampions2026	Team Liquidavg 79¢	$5.9K	$5.3K	-$550.09	53% 2056-1822 (3878)
LU luckycat888888CTR	OGavg 29¢	$4.9K	$5.1K	$-1.3K	53% 49-43 (92)
LI LinkE5CTR	OGavg 30¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$0	47% 701-780 (1481)
BU Bunnycat	Team Liquidavg 70.9¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$46.41	69% 83-38 (121)
NA natorgatorontopCTR	OGavg 32¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	-$220.2	60% 275-181 (456)
EX Excentrico	Team Liquidavg 81.3¢	$11.0K	$3.2K	$-1.8K	63% 304-176 (480)
FK fkAL	Team Liquidavg 71¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$40.81	63% 2026-1197 (3223)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	Team Liquidavg 67.7¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$91.82	51% 343-335 (678)
PI pipipi150ARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 74.3¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$129.34	65% 1729-922 (2651)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 74.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$34.94
└ OG leg	OGavg 27.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$164.28
BA babyboy9ARB<$100	OGavg 31.6¢	$5.0K	$2.6K	+$45.58	55% 351-293 (644)
└ OG leg	OGavg 31.6¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	+$14.73
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 68.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$30.85

pnhctARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$38,441.8

Value

$38.7K

PnL

+$263.7

Record

54%

496-424 (920)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$27,415.7671¢+$3.3K

OG$11,026.0428.2¢$-3.0K

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Liquid

Invested

$23,530.61

Value

$23.8K

PnL

+$239.13

Record

58%

898-651 (1549)

Sunshine.Smile

Team Liquid

Invested

$20,370

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

58%

1860-1339 (3199)

gxxyyARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$13,250.89

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

69%

493-219 (712)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$10,782.2473¢-$449.56

OG$2,468.6416¢+$2.2K

para-Vision

Team Liquid

Invested

$14,340.9

Value

$14.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

209-165 (374)

cat3xcat3x

Team Liquid

Invested

$11,298.41

Value

$11.3K

PnL

-$7.37

Record

56%

330-261 (591)

GeorgeRe

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,506.84

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

54%

1080-933 (2013)

relativesignificanceCTR

Invested

$9,252.9

Value

$8.9K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

57%

99-76 (175)

qwerqr1251251

Team Liquid

Invested

$15,554.17

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$559.09

Record

70%

297-130 (427)

yadens

Team Liquid

Invested

$21,404.13

Value

$8.1K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

70%

157-67 (224)

RandomVibecoder

Team Liquid

Invested

$6,891.78

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

49%

803-846 (1649)

UNIVERSEMVP

Team Liquid

Invested

$33,656.87

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

68%

77-36 (113)

0xheavy888

Team Liquid

Invested

$6,796.69

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$338.11

Record

55%

7053-5657 (12710)

minji

Team Liquid

Invested

$5,938.81

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$6.48

Record

52%

1790-1647 (3437)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

Team Liquid

Invested

$7,299.21

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$336.49

Record

60%

525-343 (868)

DamwonChampions2026

Team Liquid

Invested

$5,871.61

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$550.09

Record

53%

2056-1822 (3878)

luckycat888888CTR

Invested

$4,930

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

49-43 (92)

LinkE5CTR

Invested

$4,089.28

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

701-780 (1481)

Bunnycat

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,479

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$46.41

Record

69%

83-38 (121)

natorgatorontopCTR

Invested

$3,523.19

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$220.2

Record

60%

275-181 (456)

Excentrico

Team Liquid

Invested

$10,999

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

63%

304-176 (480)

fkAL

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,897.82

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$40.81

Record

63%

2026-1197 (3223)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,644.75

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$91.82

Record

51%

343-335 (678)

pipipi150ARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,755.22

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$129.34

Record

65%

1729-922 (2651)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$1,525.3574.3¢+$34.94

OG$1,229.8727.7¢-$164.28

babyboy9ARB<$100

Invested

$5,006.09

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$45.58

Record

55%

351-293 (644)

Both legs:

OG$1,404.8431.6¢+$14.73

Team Liquid$1,240.5768.7¢+$30.85

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

34 of 58 top traders (59%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

32 traders

Top 2 hold 29%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on Team Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 29% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Liquid 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpTeam Liquid 91% · 11

Aligned

ctrTeam Liquid 58% · 43

Aligned

Hand-pickedTeam Liquid 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Team Liquid 63% · 51

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.