Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Liquid, while the market favors LGD Gaming (60%). 9 of 41 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner

9 of 41 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (22%) · Team Liquid at 41¢ · $128K held · ends Nov 13

Team Liquid41¢LGD Gaming59¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 22%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$127.8K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 40.5¢

-35% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

9 of 41 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors LGD Gaming 60%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid41%

LGD Gaming60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid9 traders

Total Value$42.4K

Total Shares87,018

Combined PnL$-11.5K

LGD Gaming32 traders

Total Value$57.8K

Total Shares111,043

Combined PnL+$14.2K

Team Liquid — 22%LGD Gaming — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Team Liquidavg 61.8¢	$30.3K	$22.8K	$-7.5K	47% 462-528 (990)
GE GeorgeReARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 64.7¢	$24.0K	$19.9K	$-2.2K	53% 711-643 (1354)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 64.7¢	$18.5K	$15.1K	$-3.3K
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 36¢	$3.7K	$4.8K	+$1.2K
Neimuking	LGD Gamingavg 36.6¢	$6.8K	$8.3K	+$1.5K	35% 9-17 (26)
GE GEAEWCTR	Team Liquidavg 59.4¢	$6.8K	$6.1K	-$738.95	— 12-6 (18)
SI SineNooneEI	LGD Gamingavg 34¢	$3.4K	$5.8K	+$2.5K	55% 634-527 (1161)
0X 0xNuttawut	LGD Gamingavg 37¢	$3.4K	$5.4K	+$2.0K	48% 29-31 (60)
Medo3D	LGD Gamingavg 34¢	$3.0K	$5.2K	+$2.2K	11% 31-250 (281)
relativesignificanceCTR	Team Liquidavg 64.1¢	$8.4K	$4.8K	+$409.91	55% 154-128 (282)
Skritopoolniy	LGD Gamingavg 33.4¢	$2.6K	$4.6K	+$2.0K	9% 39-379 (418)
R2 r2d2v2	LGD Gamingavg 35¢	$3.9K	$3.6K	-$336.72	12% 26-184 (210)
RA RandomVibecoder	LGD Gamingavg 42.5¢	$2.6K	$3.5K	+$967.68	48% 528-572 (1100)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872CTR	Team Liquidavg 66.9¢	$5.6K	$3.5K	$-2.1K	— 5-3 (8)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	LGD Gamingavg 38¢	$2.5K	$3.3K	+$756.58	53% 48-43 (91)
DamwonChampions2026	LGD Gamingavg 50.7¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$179.2	59% 16-11 (27)
PI pipipi150	LGD Gamingavg 41¢	$2.2K	$2.7K	+$518.81	68% 58-27 (85)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	LGD Gamingavg 49.4¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$36.87	53% 390-340 (730)
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 49.4¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$239.37
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 55¢	$825	$622.5	-$202.5
minjiARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 51¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$83.78	54% 15-13 (28)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 51¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$254.78
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 49¢	$882.07	$1.1K	+$171
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR	LGD Gamingavg 46.4¢	$4.0K	$2.0K	+$115.52	— 4-10 (14)
GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR	Team Liquidavg 61.4¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	-$583.24	4% 13-295 (308)
TR TrunglCTR	Team Liquidavg 64.1¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$475.84	4% 7-157 (164)
YI yishiwucheng	LGD Gamingavg 37.8¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$492.27	57% 73-54 (127)
cat3xcat3x	LGD Gamingavg 56.4¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$83.2	3% 5-176 (181)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 60¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$226.2	— 11-4 (15)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 60¢	$899.99	$667.49	-$232.5
└ LGD Gaming leg	LGD Gamingavg 54.9¢	$559.79	$566.09	+$6.3
VV VVVSSP	LGD Gamingavg 40.7¢	$843.99	$1.2K	+$368.02	31% 30-66 (96)
errormargin	LGD Gamingavg 51.5¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	+$261.57	5% 9-181 (190)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$30,300

Value

$22.8K

PnL

$-7.5K

Record

47%

462-528 (990)

GeorgeReARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$23,964.89

Value

$19.9K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

53%

711-643 (1354)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$18,462.164.7¢$-3.3K

LGD Gaming$3,656.636¢+$1.2K

Neimuking

LGD Gaming

Invested

$6,813.36

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

35%

9-17 (26)

GEAEWCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$6,816.84

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$738.95

Record

—

12-6 (18)

SineNooneEI

LGD Gaming

Invested

$3,400

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

55%

634-527 (1161)

0xNuttawut

LGD Gaming

Invested

$3,390.32

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

48%

29-31 (60)

Medo3D

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,999.98

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

11%

31-250 (281)

relativesignificanceCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,386.71

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$409.91

Record

55%

154-128 (282)

Skritopoolniy

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,629.48

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

39-379 (418)

r2d2v2

LGD Gaming

Invested

$3,928.45

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$336.72

Record

12%

26-184 (210)

RandomVibecoder

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,578.12

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$967.68

Record

48%

528-572 (1100)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$5,645.07

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

—

5-3 (8)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,499.99

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$756.58

Record

53%

48-43 (91)

DamwonChampions2026

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,943.16

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$179.2

Record

59%

16-11 (27)

pipipi150

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,203.4

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$518.81

Record

68%

58-27 (85)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,125.93

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$36.87

Record

53%

390-340 (730)

Both legs:

LGD Gaming$1,300.9349.4¢+$239.37

Team Liquid$82555¢-$202.5

minjiARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,245.69

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$83.78

Record

54%

15-13 (28)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$1,363.6251¢-$254.78

LGD Gaming$882.0749¢+$171

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR

LGD Gaming

Invested

$4,004.27

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$115.52

Record

—

4-10 (14)

GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,407.9

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$583.24

Record

13-295 (308)

TrunglCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,243.34

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$475.84

Record

7-157 (164)

yishiwucheng

LGD Gaming

Invested

$1,222.67

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$492.27

Record

57%

73-54 (127)

cat3xcat3x

LGD Gaming

Invested

$1,607.35

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$83.2

Record

5-176 (181)

JabamiYumekosRBQARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,459.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$226.2

Record

—

11-4 (15)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$899.9960¢-$232.5

LGD Gaming$559.7954.9¢+$6.3

VVVSSP

LGD Gaming

Invested

$843.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$368.02

Record

31%

30-66 (96)

errormargin

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$261.57

Record

9-181 (190)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

9 of 41 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors LGD Gaming 60%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.