Dota 2: Team Liquid vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner

38 of 59 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (64%) · Team Liquid at 99¢ · $169K held · ends Nov 13

Team Liquid>99¢LGD Gaming<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$168.7K

Combined PnL

$8.1K

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 99.3¢

+38% since entry · 38 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

38 of 59 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid99%

LGD Gaming1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid38 traders

Total Value$155.2K

Total Shares162,079

Combined PnL+$38.0K

LGD Gaming21 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares152,800

Combined PnL$-29.9K

Team Liquid — 64%LGD Gaming — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

32 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on Team Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Liquid 100% · 9

Aligned

sniperTeam Liquid 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrLGD Gaming 58% · 24

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Liquid 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Team Liquid 63% · 51

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Liquidavg 61.5¢	$17.0K	$26.0K	+$9.0K	47% 461-528 (989)
SI Sisyphus-	Team Liquidavg 63.3¢	$12.3K	$18.8K	+$6.5K	57% 538-406 (944)
GE GeorgeRe	Team Liquidavg 63.8¢	$12.2K	$18.5K	+$6.3K	53% 711-642 (1353)
YA yadens	Team Liquidavg 73.3¢	$9.2K	$12.3K	+$3.0K	25% 27-80 (107)
GX gxxyy	Team Liquidavg 89.5¢	$9.9K	$10.5K	+$529.79	69% 500-226 (726)
errormargin	Team Liquidavg 68.6¢	$6.0K	$8.2K	+$2.2K	4% 8-181 (189)
TA TakeMakeSell	Team Liquidavg 97¢	$8.1K	$6.5K	+$28.56	91% 48-5 (53)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872	Team Liquidavg 79.2¢	$4.5K	$5.6K	+$1.1K	— 4-3 (7)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Team Liquidavg 70.2¢	$10.3K	$5.6K	+$3.3K	32% 47-99 (146)
relativesignificanceCTR	LGD Gamingavg 37¢	$11.6K	$5.2K	$-6.1K	55% 154-128 (282)
PI pipipi150	Team Liquidavg 77.8¢	$3.8K	$4.8K	+$1.0K	67% 54-27 (81)
DamwonChampions2026	Team Liquidavg 75.9¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$125.08	58% 15-11 (26)
0xheavy888	Team Liquidavg 78.4¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	+$16.69	53% 388-339 (727)
Up0nly	Team Liquidavg 74.9¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$684.41	63% 20-12 (32)
minji	Team Liquidavg 76.7¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$303.32	52% 14-13 (27)
BA babyboy9	Team Liquidavg 69.2¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$758.39	67% 31-15 (46)
QW qwerqr1251251	Team Liquidavg 78.4¢	$3.9K	$2.7K	+$612.23	23% 47-158 (205)
Hawk.live	Team Liquidavg 86.3¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$222.78	57% 681-517 (1198)
EX Excentrico	Team Liquidavg 73.5¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$566.62	5% 6-127 (133)
maytopmay	Team Liquidavg 69¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$614.14	19% 49-205 (254)
XU xuxuntao	Team Liquidavg 91¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$71.68	42% 41-57 (98)
2H 2HAE	Team Liquidavg 95.2¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$22.34	21% 25-96 (121)
CyberScore.liveCTR	LGD Gamingavg 9.7¢	$2.3K	$1.4K	-$931.59	51% 31-30 (61)
GO GooGooGaga1	Team Liquidavg 71.9¢	$999.16	$1.3K	+$289.02	48% 21-23 (44)
GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR	LGD Gamingavg 32¢	$2.4K	$1.3K	$-1.1K	4% 13-295 (308)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Liquid

Invested

$16,999.48

Value

$26.0K

PnL

+$9.0K

Record

47%

461-528 (989)

Sisyphus-

Team Liquid

Invested

$12,347.05

Value

$18.8K

PnL

+$6.5K

Record

57%

538-406 (944)

GeorgeRe

Team Liquid

Invested

$12,244.19

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

53%

711-642 (1353)

yadens

Team Liquid

Invested

$9,230.33

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

25%

27-80 (107)

gxxyy

Team Liquid

Invested

$9,936.03

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$529.79

Record

69%

500-226 (726)

errormargin

Team Liquid

Invested

$6,000

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

8-181 (189)

TakeMakeSell

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,090.83

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$28.56

Record

91%

48-5 (53)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872

Team Liquid

Invested

$4,548.94

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

—

4-3 (7)

UNIVERSEMVP

Team Liquid

Invested

$10,262.52

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

32%

47-99 (146)

relativesignificanceCTR

LGD Gaming

Invested

$11,584.97

Value

$5.2K

PnL

$-6.1K

Record

55%

154-128 (282)

pipipi150

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,764.45

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

67%

54-27 (81)

DamwonChampions2026

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,986.05

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$125.08

Record

58%

15-11 (26)

0xheavy888

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,473.83

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$16.69

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

Up0nly

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,489.32

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$684.41

Record

63%

20-12 (32)

minji

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,740.14

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$303.32

Record

52%

14-13 (27)

babyboy9

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$758.39

Record

67%

31-15 (46)

qwerqr1251251

Team Liquid

Invested

$3,857.4

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$612.23

Record

23%

47-158 (205)

Hawk.live

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,416.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$222.78

Record

57%

681-517 (1198)

Excentrico

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,012

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$566.62

Record

6-127 (133)

maytopmay

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,542.13

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$614.14

Record

19%

49-205 (254)

xuxuntao

Team Liquid

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$71.68

Record

42%

41-57 (98)

2HAE

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,499.31

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$22.34

Record

21%

25-96 (121)

CyberScore.liveCTR

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,297.64

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$931.59

Record

51%

31-30 (61)

GooGooGaga1

Team Liquid

Invested

$999.16

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$289.02

Record

48%

21-23 (44)

GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR

LGD Gaming

Invested

$2,384.14

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

13-295 (308)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

38 of 59 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

32 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

63% of non-arb traders are on Team Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTeam Liquid 100% · 9

Aligned

sniperTeam Liquid 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrLGD Gaming 58% · 24

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Liquid 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Team Liquid 63% · 51

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.