Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Liquid, while the market favors LEGION (70%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs LEGION (+1.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (44%) · Team Liquid at 31¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

Team Liquid31¢LEGION69¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 30.5¢

-48% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors LEGION 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid31%

LEGION70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LEGION5 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares6,923

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Team Liquid4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,955

Combined PnL-$38.22

LEGION — 56%Team Liquid — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YI yishiwucheng	LEGIONavg 43.4¢	$2.2K	$3.4K	+$1.2K	58% 91-66 (157)
BI biying99999CTR	Team Liquidavg 56.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$29.08	36% 107-193 (300)
MaoZeDonKCTR	Team Liquidavg 62.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$82.88	56% 35-28 (63)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	LEGIONavg 35.7¢	$299.63	$385.57	+$85.94	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
CR Crazyboy77CTR	Team Liquidavg 56.7¢	$367.68	$379.19	+$11.5	13% 15-103 (118)
AM ameisgoat11	LEGIONavg 35.9¢	$134.34	$261.63	+$127.28	41% 694-1010 (1704)
ColdW	LEGIONavg 38¢	$207.84	$226.98	+$19.14	— 5-5 (10)
PU purplegattoARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 59¢	$108.45	$94	-$14.45	68% 2645-1232 (3877)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 59¢	$59	$56	-$3
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 49.5¢	$49.45	$38	-$11.45
PA panpidaras1CTR<$100	Team Liquidavg 49¢	$40	$44.08	+$4.08	14% 48-291 (339)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	LEGIONavg 38¢	$13.23	$5.88	+$0.66	39% 3649-5778 (9427)

yishiwucheng

LEGION

Invested

$2,244.56

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

58%

91-66 (157)

biying99999CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,379.82

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$29.08

Record

36%

107-193 (300)

MaoZeDonKCTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,314.02

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$82.88

Record

56%

35-28 (63)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

LEGION

Invested

$299.63

Value

$385.57

PnL

+$85.94

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

Crazyboy77CTR

Team Liquid

Invested

$367.68

Value

$379.19

PnL

+$11.5

Record

13%

15-103 (118)

ameisgoat11

LEGION

Invested

$134.34

Value

$261.63

PnL

+$127.28

Record

41%

694-1010 (1704)

ColdW

LEGION

Invested

$207.84

Value

$226.98

PnL

+$19.14

Record

—

5-5 (10)

purplegattoARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$108.45

Value

$94

PnL

-$14.45

Record

68%

2645-1232 (3877)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$5959¢-$3

LEGION$49.4549.5¢-$11.45

panpidaras1CTR<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$40

Value

$44.08

PnL

+$4.08

Record

14%

48-291 (339)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

LEGION

Invested

$13.23

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$0.66

Record

39%

3649-5778 (9427)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 31%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors LEGION 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.