Dota 2: Team Liquid vs LEGION (BO3) - 1win Essence Group C

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (31%) · Team Liquid at 72¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Team Liquid72¢LEGION28¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 31%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$591.38

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 71.5¢

-10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

5 of 16 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid72%

LEGION28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,530

Combined PnL-$197.54

LEGION11 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares9,431

Combined PnL-$393.83

Team Liquid — 31%LEGION — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Team Liquidavg 81¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$191.95	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 56.1¢	$694.54	$637.28	+$58.24	52% 820-759 (1579)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 56.1¢	$338.16	$430.65	+$139.12
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 39.7¢	$287.5	$206.62	-$80.88
PU purplegattoCTR	LEGIONavg 19.4¢	$761.68	$550.48	-$211.2	68% 2645-1232 (3877)
AM ameisgoat11	Team Liquidavg 76.4¢	$426.93	$406.27	-$8.4	41% 694-1010 (1704)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	LEGIONavg 19¢	$418	$308	-$110	59% 44-31 (75)
GA GaditimaCTR	LEGIONavg 18¢	$360	$280	-$80	48% 274-292 (566)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	LEGIONavg 16.7¢	$93.06	$94.78	+$1.72	46% 289-344 (633)
PI pipipi150CTR<$100	LEGIONavg 14.1¢	$80.08	$82.63	+$2.55	67% 70-34 (104)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 70¢	$66.88	$72.87	+$5.99	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 70¢	$49.72	$50.43	+$0.71
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 22.2¢	$17.15	$22.44	+$5.28
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Team Liquidavg 71.6¢	$42.78	$45.22	+$2.43	44% 372-467 (839)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	LEGIONavg 14¢	$15.5	$16.06	+$0.55	50% 3804-3775 (7579)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Team Liquidavg 87¢	$9.73	$9.9	+$0.17	35% 264-485 (749)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 13.8¢	$3.06	$5.2	+$2.14	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Team Liquidavg 81¢	$4.05	$4.25	+$0.2	62% 212-128 (340)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	LEGIONavg 11¢	$1.54	$1.89	+$0.35	34% 368-702 (1070)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	LEGIONavg 11¢	$1.1	$1.1	+$0	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
VV VVVSSPCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 12¢	$0.95	$1.07	+$0.12	32% 34-72 (106)
YI yishiwuchengCTR<$100	LEGIONavg 15¢	$1.02	$0.95	-$0.07	58% 91-66 (157)

suntori

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,556.34

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$191.95

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

NotJumpARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$694.54

Value

$637.28

PnL

+$58.24

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$338.1656.1¢+$139.12

LEGION$287.539.7¢-$80.88

purplegattoCTR

LEGION

Invested

$761.68

Value

$550.48

PnL

-$211.2

Record

68%

2645-1232 (3877)

ameisgoat11

Team Liquid

Invested

$426.93

Value

$406.27

PnL

-$8.4

Record

41%

694-1010 (1704)

JuiceFarmCTR

LEGION

Invested

$418

Value

$308

PnL

-$110

Record

59%

44-31 (75)

GaditimaCTR

LEGION

Invested

$360

Value

$280

PnL

-$80

Record

48%

274-292 (566)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$93.06

Value

$94.78

PnL

+$1.72

Record

46%

289-344 (633)

pipipi150CTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$80.08

Value

$82.63

PnL

+$2.55

Record

67%

70-34 (104)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$66.88

Value

$72.87

PnL

+$5.99

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$49.7270¢+$0.71

LEGION$17.1522.2¢+$5.28

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$42.78

Value

$45.22

PnL

+$2.43

Record

44%

372-467 (839)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$15.5

Value

$16.06

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

3804-3775 (7579)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$9.73

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.17

Record

35%

264-485 (749)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$3.06

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$2.14

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

thatsabing0<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.25

PnL

+$0.2

Record

62%

212-128 (340)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$1.54

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$0.35

Record

34%

368-702 (1070)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

VVVSSPCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.07

PnL

+$0.12

Record

32%

34-72 (106)

yishiwuchengCTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.07

Record

58%

91-66 (157)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

5 of 16 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.