Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold DO KONCA, while the market favors Yellow Submarine (69%). 22 of 36 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: DO KONCA vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner

22 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold DO KONCA (61%) · DO KONCA at 31¢ · $166K held · ends Nov 14

DO KONCA31¢Yellow Submarine69¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

DO KONCA

Consensus Traders

DO KONCA 61%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$166.4K

Combined PnL

$13.1K

Smart Money Entry

65.7¢ → 31¢

-53% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralDO KONCA at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

DO KONCA

22 of 36 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Yellow Submarine 69%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

DO KONCA31%

Yellow Submarine69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yellow Submarine14 traders

Total Value$90.8K

Total Shares130,366

Combined PnL+$46.6K

DO KONCA22 traders

Total Value$50.6K

Total Shares127,802

Combined PnL$-33.5K

Yellow Submarine — 39%DO KONCA — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Yellow Submarineavg 30¢	$24.8K	$66.6K	+$41.8K	47% 468-534 (1002)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	DO KONCAavg 48.9¢	$10.8K	$11.9K	+$1.1K	48% 534-581 (1115)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 24.3¢	$2.3K	$6.6K	+$4.3K
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 48.9¢	$8.5K	$5.3K	$-3.2K
GE GeorgeReCTR	DO KONCAavg 60.6¢	$16.1K	$10.3K	$-5.9K	53% 714-646 (1360)
NeimukingCTR	DO KONCAavg 65¢	$25.6K	$8.3K	$-17.3K	36% 12-21 (33)
relativesignificance	Yellow Submarineavg 33.3¢	$11.0K	$7.5K	-$277.83	54% 156-131 (287)
SC Scrip-scripCTR	DO KONCAavg 67.5¢	$6.8K	$6.7K	-$4.68	— 4-13 (17)
cat3xcat3xCTR	DO KONCAavg 71.1¢	$6.1K	$6.2K	+$117.3	4% 7-179 (186)
QW qwerqr1251251ARB<$100	DO KONCAavg 69.9¢	$6.0K	$4.6K	$-1.3K	24% 51-160 (211)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 50.8¢	$2.1K	$2.9K	+$813.97
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 69.9¢	$3.8K	$1.7K	$-2.1K
dodsterbotCTR	DO KONCAavg 60.7¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$658.12	45% 510-616 (1126)
Hawk.live	Yellow Submarineavg 30.8¢	$1.9K	$4.2K	+$2.4K	57% 687-517 (1204)
YA yadensCTR	DO KONCAavg 87.8¢	$9.4K	$4.1K	$-5.3K	27% 30-82 (112)
Tolkonevminus2	Yellow Submarineavg 51.4¢	$8.2K	$3.3K	-$435.39	46% 63-75 (138)
BU Bunnycat	Yellow Submarineavg 69.1¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$4.6	56% 25-20 (45)
iceblue-ARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 56.9¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$501.42	46% 31-37 (68)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 56.9¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$411.66
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 26.1¢	$475.7	$565.46	+$89.76
PI pipipi150ARB<$100	DO KONCAavg 82.9¢	$3.1K	$2.6K	-$494.65	69% 67-30 (97)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 42.9¢	$1.2K	$1.9K	+$725.8
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 82.9¢	$1.9K	$710.95	$-1.2K
TR TrunglCTR	DO KONCAavg 84.5¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$114.47	4% 7-159 (166)
Up0nlyCTR	DO KONCAavg 79.6¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$141.5	62% 24-15 (39)
Tolkonevminus3	Yellow Submarineavg 43.4¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$499.71	59% 36-25 (61)
VV VVVSSP	Yellow Submarineavg 38.6¢	$803.8	$1.3K	+$498.7	32% 33-69 (102)
FatsLivesMatterCTR	DO KONCAavg 48.8¢	$3.0K	$1.2K	-$678.8	23% 20-68 (88)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	DO KONCAavg 50.9¢	$3.5K	$1.2K	-$685.31	36% 58-104 (162)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yellow Submarineavg 23.2¢	$412.47	$1.2K	+$803.74	50% 2504-2463 (4967)
AU autob2ARB<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 68.1¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$66.5	54% 52-44 (96)
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 68.1¢	$868.5	$886.12	+$17.62
└ DO KONCA leg	DO KONCAavg 39.1¢	$381.5	$297.38	-$84.13
errormarginCTR	DO KONCAavg 62.3¢	$5.2K	$1.1K	$-4.1K	7% 13-183 (196)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	DO KONCAavg 72¢	$896.12	$914.34	+$18.22	15% 38-208 (246)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$24,779.92

Value

$66.6K

PnL

+$41.8K

Record

47%

468-534 (1002)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$10,805.52

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

48%

534-581 (1115)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$2,302.6824.3¢+$4.3K

DO KONCA$8,502.8548.9¢$-3.2K

GeorgeReCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$16,132.52

Value

$10.3K

PnL

$-5.9K

Record

53%

714-646 (1360)

NeimukingCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$25,603.51

Value

$8.3K

PnL

$-17.3K

Record

36%

12-21 (33)

relativesignificance

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$11,003.96

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$277.83

Record

54%

156-131 (287)

Scrip-scripCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$6,754.46

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$4.68

Record

—

4-13 (17)

cat3xcat3xCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$6,070.4

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$117.3

Record

7-179 (186)

qwerqr1251251ARB<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$6,028.5

Value

$4.6K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

24%

51-160 (211)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$2,114.7850.8¢+$813.97

DO KONCA$3,812.1169.9¢$-2.1K

dodsterbotCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$4,200.15

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$658.12

Record

45%

510-616 (1126)

Hawk.live

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,879.21

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

57%

687-517 (1204)

yadensCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$9,407.47

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

27%

30-82 (112)

Tolkonevminus2

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$8,237.67

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$435.39

Record

46%

63-75 (138)

Bunnycat

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,786.64

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$4.6

Record

56%

25-20 (45)

iceblue-ARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,385.74

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$501.42

Record

46%

31-37 (68)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$1,789.1756.9¢+$411.66

DO KONCA$475.726.1¢+$89.76

pipipi150ARB<$100

DO KONCA

Invested

$3,099.12

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$494.65

Record

69%

67-30 (97)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$1,167.7342.9¢+$725.8

DO KONCA$1,931.482.9¢$-1.2K

TrunglCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$2,664.52

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$114.47

Record

7-159 (166)

Up0nlyCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$2,308.99

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$141.5

Record

62%

24-15 (39)

Tolkonevminus3

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,200.16

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$499.71

Record

59%

36-25 (61)

VVVSSP

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$803.8

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$498.7

Record

32%

33-69 (102)

FatsLivesMatterCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$2,987.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$678.8

Record

23%

20-68 (88)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$3,451.81

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$685.31

Record

36%

58-104 (162)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$412.47

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$803.74

Record

50%

2504-2463 (4967)

autob2ARB<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$66.5

Record

54%

52-44 (96)

Both legs:

Yellow Submarine$868.568.1¢+$17.62

DO KONCA$381.539.1¢-$84.13

errormarginCTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$5,199.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

13-183 (196)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

DO KONCA

Invested

$896.12

Value

$914.34

PnL

+$18.22

Record

15%

38-208 (246)

Research grade

NeutralDO KONCA at 31%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

DO KONCA

22 of 36 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Yellow Submarine 69%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that DO KONCA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.