Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Xipto Esports - Game 1 Winner

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Inner Circle (33%) · Inner Circle at 100¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 11

Inner Circle>99¢Xipto Esports<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Inner Circle

Consensus Traders

Inner Circle 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

$5.9K

Smart Money Entry

45.5¢ → 99.5¢

+119% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralInner Circle at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Inner Circle100%

Xipto Esports1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Inner Circle3 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares14,306

Combined PnL+$6.5K

Xipto Esports6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,847

Combined PnL-$553.38

Inner Circle — 33%Xipto Esports — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Medo3D	Inner Circleavg 38.8¢	$3.3K	$5.6K	+$2.5K	6% 14-216 (230)
RA RandomVibecoder	Inner Circleavg 40.6¢	$2.3K	$5.6K	+$3.2K	48% 491-535 (1026)
XU xuxuntao	Inner Circleavg 69.5¢	$1.9K	$2.7K	+$770.65	37% 28-47 (75)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 46.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$84.99	56% 3838-3011 (6849)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 64.2¢	$9.0K	$591.97	$-8.4K	46% 426-495 (921)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 64.2¢	$8.8K	$413.14	$-8.4K
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 54.2¢	$100	$178.83	+$78.83
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 68¢	$307	$309.26	+$2.26	51% 31-30 (61)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 66.8¢	$88.23	$71.06	-$14.66	11% 24-201 (225)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 67.2¢	$656.08	$29.28	-$626.8	57% 514-393 (907)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 23¢	$5.33	$5.68	+$0.35	46% 112-132 (244)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 44¢	$3.26	$3.74	+$0.48	41% 3119-4481 (7600)

Medo3D

Inner Circle

Invested

$3,253.78

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

14-216 (230)

RandomVibecoder

Inner Circle

Invested

$2,334.42

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

48%

491-535 (1026)

xuxuntao

Inner Circle

Invested

$1,950

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$770.65

Record

37%

28-47 (75)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,195.23

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$84.99

Record

56%

3838-3011 (6849)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$9,000

Value

$591.97

PnL

$-8.4K

Record

46%

426-495 (921)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$8,845.8164.2¢$-8.4K

Inner Circle$10054.2¢+$78.83

PourpelNourpelCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$307

Value

$309.26

PnL

+$2.26

Record

51%

31-30 (61)

TommyLeePeecaCTR<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$88.23

Value

$71.06

PnL

-$14.66

Record

11%

24-201 (225)

Sisyphus-CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$656.08

Value

$29.28

PnL

-$626.8

Record

57%

514-393 (907)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$5.33

Value

$5.68

PnL

+$0.35

Record

46%

112-132 (244)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0.48

Record

41%

3119-4481 (7600)

Research grade

NeutralInner Circle at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Inner Circle wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.