Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Xipto Esports, while the market favors Inner Circle (63%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Xipto Esports (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group A

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (33%) · Xipto Esports at 37¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11

Inner Circle63¢Xipto Esports37¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Inner Circle 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Inner Circle63%

Xipto Esports37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports1 trader

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,886

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Inner Circle2 traders

Total Value$70.4

Total Shares213

Combined PnL-$3.85

Xipto Esports — 33%Inner Circle — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 64.3¢	$2.5K	$1.4K	$-1.1K	46% 426-495 (921)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 51.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$23.38	32% 282-611 (893)
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 46.6¢	$539.87	$729.36	+$189.5
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 51.4¢	$590.9	$425.43	-$166.11
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 59.8¢	$598.66	$592.62	-$6.04	11% 24-201 (225)
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 41.6¢	$249.4	$326.93	+$77.53
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 59.8¢	$349.26	$265.69	-$83.57
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 50.1¢	$235.35	$252.74	+$17.39	56% 3838-3011 (6849)
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 44.2¢	$117.18	$153.68	+$36.5
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 50.1¢	$118.17	$99.07	-$19.1
CI cigarettes<$100	Inner Circleavg 34.3¢	$51.5	$45.75	-$5.75	53% 5667-5092 (10759)
JU JuiceFarm<$100	Inner Circleavg 36¢	$22.76	$24.65	+$1.9	— 12-7 (19)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

46%

426-495 (921)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,135.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$23.38

Record

32%

282-611 (893)

Both legs:

Inner Circle$539.8746.6¢+$189.5

Xipto Esports$590.951.4¢-$166.11

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$598.66

Value

$592.62

PnL

-$6.04

Record

11%

24-201 (225)

Both legs:

Inner Circle$249.441.6¢+$77.53

Xipto Esports$349.2659.8¢-$83.57

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$235.35

Value

$252.74

PnL

+$17.39

Record

56%

3838-3011 (6849)

Both legs:

Inner Circle$117.1844.2¢+$36.5

Xipto Esports$118.1750.1¢-$19.1

cigarettes<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$51.5

Value

$45.75

PnL

-$5.75

Record

53%

5667-5092 (10759)

JuiceFarm<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$22.76

Value

$24.65

PnL

+$1.9

Record

—

12-7 (19)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Inner Circle 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.