Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (62%) · HULIGANI at 100¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 8

HULIGANI>99¢Yellow Submarine<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HULIGANI

Consensus Traders

HULIGANI 62%

Total Value

$29.5K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 100¢

+75% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

13 of 21 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI100%

Yellow Submarine0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HULIGANI13 traders

Total Value$25.2K

Total Shares31,029

Combined PnL+$7.4K

Yellow Submarine8 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares26,699

Combined PnL$-5.5K

HULIGANI — 62%Yellow Submarine — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-	HULIGANIavg 39.2¢	$4.5K	$6.6K	+$2.1K	55% 791-650 (1441)
RA RandomVibecoder	HULIGANIavg 49.8¢	$2.4K	$4.7K	+$2.3K	48% 855-909 (1764)
GX gxxyy	HULIGANIavg 79.9¢	$3.2K	$4.0K	+$801.66	69% 521-229 (750)
Hawk.live	HULIGANIavg 66.4¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$411.51	56% 695-538 (1233)
GE GeorgeReCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 61¢	$3.4K	$2.3K	$-1.1K	54% 1140-980 (2120)
MA madar78	HULIGANIavg 86.8¢	$6.4K	$2.3K	+$741.19	67% 71-35 (106)
XU xuxuntao	HULIGANIavg 83.5¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$223.42	61% 117-74 (191)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 49.6¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$160.48	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
maytopmay	HULIGANIavg 45¢	$753.43	$971.36	+$217.93	61% 311-201 (512)
WH whosay	HULIGANIavg 95¢	$855.99	$900.59	+$44.6	56% 1165-903 (2068)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 43.6¢	$722.08	$593.3	-$128.78	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
Medo3D	HULIGANIavg 51¢	$209.24	$410.06	+$200.83	41% 182-264 (446)
eblomixer	HULIGANIavg 42.2¢	$285.91	$392.86	+$106.96	58% 541-391 (932)
PA pauleta23	HULIGANIavg 66.7¢	$240	$359.64	+$119.64	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
TR TrunglCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 59.1¢	$454.07	$322.83	-$131.23	61% 410-265 (675)
29 0x2931...7b81	HULIGANIavg 85.9¢	$163.21	$189.83	+$26.61	—
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	HULIGANIavg 81.8¢	$22.57	$27.59	+$5.02	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 20.4¢	$3.0K	$7.3	$-2.9K	68% 117-56 (173)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 19¢	$259	$0.68	-$258.32	53% 668-598 (1266)
CR Crazyboy77CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 33¢	$329.99	$0.5	-$329.49	53% 207-183 (390)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 55.4¢	$504.03	$0.46	-$503.57	50% 21821-22062 (43883)

Sisyphus-

HULIGANI

Invested

$4,487.79

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

55%

791-650 (1441)

RandomVibecoder

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,389.96

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

48%

855-909 (1764)

gxxyy

HULIGANI

Invested

$3,196.34

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$801.66

Record

69%

521-229 (750)

Hawk.live

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,314.36

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$411.51

Record

56%

695-538 (1233)

GeorgeReCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$3,388.66

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

1140-980 (2120)

madar78

HULIGANI

Invested

$6,370.11

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$741.19

Record

67%

71-35 (106)

xuxuntao

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,415.07

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$223.42

Record

61%

117-74 (191)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,188.93

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$160.48

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

maytopmay

HULIGANI

Invested

$753.43

Value

$971.36

PnL

+$217.93

Record

61%

311-201 (512)

whosay

HULIGANI

Invested

$855.99

Value

$900.59

PnL

+$44.6

Record

56%

1165-903 (2068)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$722.08

Value

$593.3

PnL

-$128.78

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Medo3D

HULIGANI

Invested

$209.24

Value

$410.06

PnL

+$200.83

Record

41%

182-264 (446)

eblomixer

HULIGANI

Invested

$285.91

Value

$392.86

PnL

+$106.96

Record

58%

541-391 (932)

pauleta23

HULIGANI

Invested

$240

Value

$359.64

PnL

+$119.64

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

TrunglCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$454.07

Value

$322.83

PnL

-$131.23

Record

61%

410-265 (675)

0x2931...7b81

HULIGANI

Invested

$163.21

Value

$189.83

PnL

+$26.61

Record

—

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$22.57

Value

$27.59

PnL

+$5.02

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$3,016.89

Value

$7.3

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

68%

117-56 (173)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$259

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$258.32

Record

53%

668-598 (1266)

Crazyboy77CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$329.99

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$329.49

Record

53%

207-183 (390)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$504.03

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$503.57

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

13 of 21 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HULIGANI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.