Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner

17 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (65%) · HULIGANI at 78¢ · $78K held · ends Nov 8

HULIGANI78¢Yellow Submarine22¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

HULIGANI

Consensus Traders

HULIGANI 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$77.6K

Combined PnL

$7.9K

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 78¢

+42% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

Research candidateHULIGANI at 78%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

17 of 26 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI78%

Yellow Submarine22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HULIGANI17 traders

Total Value$58.9K

Total Shares78,200

Combined PnL+$12.1K

Yellow Submarine9 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares41,191

Combined PnL$-4.2K

HULIGANI — 65%Yellow Submarine — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoder	HULIGANIavg 54¢	$10.9K	$11.9K	+$970.41	48% 855-909 (1764)
Tolkonevminus2	HULIGANIavg 52.4¢	$5.4K	$8.1K	+$2.7K	63% 107-63 (170)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 52.8¢	$10.9K	$7.8K	$-3.0K	55% 791-650 (1441)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	HULIGANIavg 53.2¢	$9.8K	$7.1K	+$2.6K	68% 117-56 (173)
MA madar78	HULIGANIavg 67.1¢	$7.9K	$6.6K	+$854.32	67% 71-35 (106)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	HULIGANIavg 47¢	$5.6K	$5.4K	-$121.88	43% 72-96 (168)
YA yadens	HULIGANIavg 66.9¢	$4.0K	$4.7K	+$694.07	71% 189-76 (265)
GO GooGooGaga1	HULIGANIavg 53.7¢	$3.0K	$4.4K	+$1.4K	78% 69-20 (89)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 44.1¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$173.67	47% 639-734 (1373)
47 0x478c...2f0c	HULIGANIavg 50¢	$1.6K	$2.5K	+$913.11	—
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 50.9¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$17.55	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 50.9¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$606.76
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 49¢	$1.1K	$488.47	-$624.3
GE GeorgeReCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 49.8¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$55.49	54% 1140-980 (2120)
WH whosay	HULIGANIavg 63.8¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$367.14	56% 1165-903 (2068)
GX gxxyy	HULIGANIavg 49.6¢	$991.27	$1.6K	+$568.73	69% 521-229 (750)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	HULIGANIavg 48.6¢	$913.17	$1.5K	+$553.85	50% 565-573 (1138)
maytopmayCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 54.7¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$552.17	61% 311-201 (512)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266	HULIGANIavg 55.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$25.26	68% 625-299 (924)
Hawk.live	HULIGANIavg 51.7¢	$569	$819.5	+$250.5	56% 695-538 (1233)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	HULIGANIavg 47.6¢	$359.01	$592.21	+$233.2	54% 3572-3080 (6652)
FE ferrariChampions2026	HULIGANIavg 48.1¢	$377.04	$496.05	+$119.01	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 49.2¢	$766.14	$342.64	-$423.5	53% 668-598 (1266)
eblomixerCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 52.6¢	$289.24	$327.25	+$38.01	58% 541-391 (932)
NO nomoredream	HULIGANIavg 64.4¢	$678.01	$278.74	-$3.18	61% 345-221 (566)
CR Crazyboy77CTR	Yellow Submarineavg 33¢	$330	$275	-$55	53% 207-183 (390)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yellow Submarineavg 55¢	$435.12	$174.05	-$261.07	50% 21821-22062 (43883)

RandomVibecoder

HULIGANI

Invested

$10,938.12

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$970.41

Record

48%

855-909 (1764)

Tolkonevminus2

HULIGANI

Invested

$5,386.87

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

63%

107-63 (170)

Sisyphus-CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$10,891.08

Value

$7.8K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

55%

791-650 (1441)

UNIVERSEMVP

HULIGANI

Invested

$9,836.59

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

68%

117-56 (173)

madar78

HULIGANI

Invested

$7,912.54

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$854.32

Record

67%

71-35 (106)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

HULIGANI

Invested

$5,555.27

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$121.88

Record

43%

72-96 (168)

yadens

HULIGANI

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$694.07

Record

71%

189-76 (265)

GooGooGaga1

HULIGANI

Invested

$3,002.5

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

78%

69-20 (89)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$4,065.24

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$173.67

Record

47%

639-734 (1373)

0x478c...2f0c

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,598.89

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$913.11

Record

—

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,230

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$17.55

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$1,117.2250.9¢+$606.76

Yellow Submarine$1,112.7849¢-$624.3

GeorgeReCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$2,051.4

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$55.49

Record

54%

1140-980 (2120)

whosay

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,595.36

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$367.14

Record

56%

1165-903 (2068)

gxxyy

HULIGANI

Invested

$991.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$568.73

Record

69%

521-229 (750)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

HULIGANI

Invested

$913.17

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$553.85

Record

50%

565-573 (1138)

maytopmayCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$1,809.19

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$552.17

Record

61%

311-201 (512)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,077.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$25.26

Record

68%

625-299 (924)

Hawk.live

HULIGANI

Invested

$569

Value

$819.5

PnL

+$250.5

Record

56%

695-538 (1233)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

HULIGANI

Invested

$359.01

Value

$592.21

PnL

+$233.2

Record

54%

3572-3080 (6652)

ferrariChampions2026

HULIGANI

Invested

$377.04

Value

$496.05

PnL

+$119.01

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$766.14

Value

$342.64

PnL

-$423.5

Record

53%

668-598 (1266)

eblomixerCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$289.24

Value

$327.25

PnL

+$38.01

Record

58%

541-391 (932)

nomoredream

HULIGANI

Invested

$678.01

Value

$278.74

PnL

-$3.18

Record

61%

345-221 (566)

Crazyboy77CTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$330

Value

$275

PnL

-$55

Record

53%

207-183 (390)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$435.12

Value

$174.05

PnL

-$261.07

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Research grade

Research candidateHULIGANI at 78%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

17 of 26 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HULIGANI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.