Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (60%) · HULIGANI at 60¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 11

HULIGANI60¢Yakult Brothers40¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HULIGANI

Consensus Traders

HULIGANI 60%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.3K

Combined PnL

$-3.1K

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 59.5¢

-10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI60%

Yakult Brothers41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HULIGANI6 traders

Total Value$24.4K

Total Shares41,648

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Yakult Brothers4 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares14,827

Combined PnL+$39.16

HULIGANI — 60%Yakult Brothers — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHULIGANI 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	HULIGANIavg 61.4¢	$16.3K	$15.6K	-$780.25	46% 426-495 (921)
SI Sisyphus-	HULIGANIavg 83.6¢	$8.0K	$5.5K	$-2.5K	57% 514-393 (907)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 42.8¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$27.34	48% 491-535 (1026)
Medo3DCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 40¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$79.15	6% 14-216 (230)
Tolkonevminus2	HULIGANIavg 52.5¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$156.1	34% 29-57 (86)
MA madar78	HULIGANIavg 57.2¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	+$34.48	35% 19-35 (54)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 21.1¢	$929.26	$842.41	-$86.85	8% 17-185 (202)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 83¢	$439.9	$437.25	-$2.65
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 21.1¢	$489.36	$405.16	-$84.2
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 46¢	$1.5K	$505.37	+$16.55	22% 26-92 (118)
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 46¢	$414.38	$369.19	+$3.28
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 54.4¢	$125.49	$136.18	+$13.27
VV VVVSSPCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 43.9¢	$371.54	$359.55	-$11.99	24% 15-47 (62)
PO PourpelNourpel	HULIGANIavg 82¢	$307.5	$309.37	+$1.87	50% 30-30 (60)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 51.1¢	$190.55	$170.51	+$9.73	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 51.1¢	$99.72	$86.78	-$12.94
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 43.3¢	$65.29	$83.73	+$22.67
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	HULIGANIavg 86.6¢	$160	$152.38	-$7.62	20% 104-404 (508)
QW qwerqr1251251ARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 56.4¢	$200	$144.4	-$22.41	15% 25-143 (168)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 56.4¢	$100	$101	+$1
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 56.1¢	$56.66	$43.4	-$23.41
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 21¢	$4.62	$3.96	-$0.66	41% 3116-4481 (7597)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

HULIGANI

Invested

$16,346.95

Value

$15.6K

PnL

-$780.25

Record

46%

426-495 (921)

Sisyphus-

HULIGANI

Invested

$8,039.21

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

57%

514-393 (907)

RandomVibecoderCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$3,750.25

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$27.34

Record

48%

491-535 (1026)

Medo3DCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$2,078.33

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$79.15

Record

14-216 (230)

Tolkonevminus2

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,625.57

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$156.1

Record

34%

29-57 (86)

madar78

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,237.42

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$34.48

Record

35%

19-35 (54)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$929.26

Value

$842.41

PnL

-$86.85

Record

17-185 (202)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$439.983¢-$2.65

Yakult Brothers$489.3621.1¢-$84.2

calculate10ARB<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$1,535.79

Value

$505.37

PnL

+$16.55

Record

22%

26-92 (118)

Both legs:

Yakult Brothers$414.3846¢+$3.28

HULIGANI$125.4954.4¢+$13.27

VVVSSPCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$371.54

Value

$359.55

PnL

-$11.99

Record

24%

15-47 (62)

PourpelNourpel

HULIGANI

Invested

$307.5

Value

$309.37

PnL

+$1.87

Record

50%

30-30 (60)

38791873984189ARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$190.55

Value

$170.51

PnL

+$9.73

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$99.7251.1¢-$12.94

Yakult Brothers$65.2943.3¢+$22.67

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

HULIGANI

Invested

$160

Value

$152.38

PnL

-$7.62

Record

20%

104-404 (508)

qwerqr1251251ARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$200

Value

$144.4

PnL

-$22.41

Record

15%

25-143 (168)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$10056.4¢+$1

Yakult Brothers$56.6656.1¢-$23.41

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$4.62

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$0.66

Record

41%

3116-4481 (7597)

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHULIGANI 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HULIGANI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.