Dota 2: HULIGANI vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winner

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (62%) · HULIGANI at 100¢ · $47K held · ends Nov 11

HULIGANI>99¢PuckChamp<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HULIGANI

Consensus Traders

HULIGANI 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.9K

Combined PnL

$5.2K

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

13 of 21 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI100%

PuckChamp0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HULIGANI13 traders

Total Value$40.0K

Total Shares40,934

Combined PnL+$11.6K

PuckChamp8 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares31,846

Combined PnL$-6.4K

HULIGANI — 62%PuckChamp — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHULIGANI 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedHULIGANI 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI Sisyphus-	HULIGANIavg 80.4¢	$20.7K	$25.8K	+$5.0K	57% 514-393 (907)
GE GeorgeRe	HULIGANIavg 43.6¢	$4.8K	$6.0K	+$6.2K	53% 698-629 (1327)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	PuckChampavg 25.1¢	$1.8K	$3.5K	+$1.7K	8% 17-185 (202)
RA RandomVibecoder	HULIGANIavg 52.5¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$233.47	48% 491-535 (1026)
NO nomoredream	HULIGANIavg 87.8¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$345.75	24% 23-71 (94)
Medo3DCTR	PuckChampavg 19.7¢	$3.1K	$1.5K	$-1.2K	6% 14-216 (230)
CA calculate10CTR	PuckChampavg 37.5¢	$2.4K	$861.41	+$241.3	22% 26-93 (119)
FatsLivesMatter	HULIGANIavg 49.4¢	$769.89	$810.16	+$40.27	15% 10-55 (65)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	PuckChampavg 43.2¢	$596.68	$560.08	+$55.79	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
└ PuckChamp leg	PuckChampavg 43.2¢	$250.96	$281.98	+$22.06
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 45.9¢	$248.09	$278.1	+$33.73
PA pauleta23	HULIGANIavg 98.6¢	$773.43	$427.12	-$346.31	28% 183-466 (649)
PO PourpelNourpel	HULIGANIavg 75¢	$291.35	$388.28	+$96.92	51% 31-30 (61)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 76¢	$247.9	$293.1	+$45.2	53% 1793-1600 (3393)
└ PuckChamp leg	PuckChampavg 23.1¢	$73.4	$227.64	+$154.24
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 76¢	$174.5	$65.46	-$109.03
VeryLucky888	HULIGANIavg 67.2¢	$188.52	$187.97	-$0.56	52% 445-417 (862)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR	PuckChampavg 55¢	$133.79	$152.64	+$18.85	20% 104-405 (509)
XU xuxuntao	HULIGANIavg 82.6¢	$612.54	$151.42	-$118.79	37% 28-47 (75)
TE testBruno2	HULIGANIavg 50¢	$715.17	$85.95	+$89.21	37% 22-37 (59)
A3 a37932699<$100	HULIGANIavg 82¢	$38.59	$38.82	+$0.24	2% 3-181 (184)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	HULIGANIavg 68.5¢	$15	$16.65	+$1.66	41% 3119-4481 (7600)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	HULIGANIavg 69.7¢	$11.55	$11.7	+$0.15	32% 282-611 (893)
YA yadensCTR	PuckChampavg 70.3¢	$4.0K	$2.84	$-4.0K	20% 18-74 (92)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	PuckChampavg 40.7¢	$2.2K	$2.75	$-2.2K	46% 426-495 (921)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR	PuckChampavg 78.2¢	$802.58	$0.51	-$802.07	12% 17-125 (142)
QW qwerqr1251251CTR	PuckChampavg 63.7¢	$1.7K	$0.29	-$119.9	15% 25-143 (168)

Sisyphus-

HULIGANI

Invested

$20,734.53

Value

$25.8K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

57%

514-393 (907)

GeorgeRe

HULIGANI

Invested

$4,838.42

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

53%

698-629 (1327)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$1,767.26

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

17-185 (202)

RandomVibecoder

HULIGANI

Invested

$3,124.46

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$233.47

Record

48%

491-535 (1026)

nomoredream

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,845.1

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$345.75

Record

24%

23-71 (94)

Medo3DCTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$3,113.43

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

14-216 (230)

calculate10CTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$2,432.02

Value

$861.41

PnL

+$241.3

Record

22%

26-93 (119)

FatsLivesMatter

HULIGANI

Invested

$769.89

Value

$810.16

PnL

+$40.27

Record

15%

10-55 (65)

38791873984189ARB<$100

PuckChamp

Invested

$596.68

Value

$560.08

PnL

+$55.79

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

Both legs:

PuckChamp$250.9643.2¢+$22.06

HULIGANI$248.0945.9¢+$33.73

pauleta23

HULIGANI

Invested

$773.43

Value

$427.12

PnL

-$346.31

Record

28%

183-466 (649)

PourpelNourpel

HULIGANI

Invested

$291.35

Value

$388.28

PnL

+$96.92

Record

51%

31-30 (61)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$247.9

Value

$293.1

PnL

+$45.2

Record

53%

1793-1600 (3393)

Both legs:

PuckChamp$73.423.1¢+$154.24

HULIGANI$174.576¢-$109.03

VeryLucky888

HULIGANI

Invested

$188.52

Value

$187.97

PnL

-$0.56

Record

52%

445-417 (862)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$133.79

Value

$152.64

PnL

+$18.85

Record

20%

104-405 (509)

xuxuntao

HULIGANI

Invested

$612.54

Value

$151.42

PnL

-$118.79

Record

37%

28-47 (75)

testBruno2

HULIGANI

Invested

$715.17

Value

$85.95

PnL

+$89.21

Record

37%

22-37 (59)

a37932699<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$38.59

Value

$38.82

PnL

+$0.24

Record

3-181 (184)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$15

Value

$16.65

PnL

+$1.66

Record

41%

3119-4481 (7600)

ameisgoat11<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$11.55

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0.15

Record

32%

282-611 (893)

yadensCTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$4,000

Value

$2.84

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

20%

18-74 (92)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$2,237.59

Value

$2.75

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

46%

426-495 (921)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$802.58

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$802.07

Record

12%

17-125 (142)

qwerqr1251251CTR

PuckChamp

Invested

$1,689

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$119.9

Record

15%

25-143 (168)

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

13 of 21 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHULIGANI 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedHULIGANI 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000HULIGANI 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HULIGANI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.