Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold HULIGANI, while the market favors CyberHero (97%). 13 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: HULIGANI vs CyberHero - Game 2 Winner

13 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (57%) · HULIGANI at 3.5¢ · $62K held · ends Nov 10

HULIGANI4¢CyberHero96¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

HULIGANI

Consensus Traders

HULIGANI 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$62.3K

Combined PnL

$-6.6K

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 3.5¢

-93% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidHULIGANI at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

13 of 23 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors CyberHero 97%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI4%

CyberHero97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HULIGANI13 traders

Total Value$25.5K

Total Shares56,484

Combined PnL$-9.0K

CyberHero10 traders

Total Value$23.3K

Total Shares38,109

Combined PnL+$2.4K

HULIGANI — 57%CyberHero — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	HULIGANIavg 47.6¢	$13.4K	$19.1K	+$5.6K	6% 16-269 (285)
SI Sisyphus-	CyberHeroavg 56.4¢	$11.9K	$11.4K	-$407.8	3% 8-236 (244)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 45.6¢	$6.9K	$7.7K	+$767.59	3% 6-200 (206)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 45.6¢	$6.3K	$6.1K	-$155.84
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 23.1¢	$656.63	$1.6K	+$923.43
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	CyberHeroavg 51.7¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$181.58	4% 6-133 (139)
QW qwerqr1251251CTR	HULIGANIavg 64.4¢	$7.3K	$3.5K	$-3.7K	10% 10-95 (105)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 54.8¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$41.22	38% 38-62 (100)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 54.8¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$672.66
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 47.3¢	$1.4K	$676.47	-$713.89
errormargin	CyberHeroavg 49.4¢	$1.5K	$3.0K	+$1.5K	0% 0-150 (150)
UN UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 56.2¢	$5.6K	$2.8K	$-1.8K	18% 12-56 (68)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 56.2¢	$3.4K	$1.5K	$-2.2K
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 53.2¢	$916.34	$1.3K	+$393.76
CA calculate10	CyberHeroavg 47.2¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$902.38	17% 9-43 (52)
LooksMaxxingxCTR	HULIGANIavg 41.9¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$122.56	1% 3-404 (407)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	CyberHeroavg 50.6¢	$797.93	$960.66	+$239.94	50% 14-14 (28)
FatsLivesMatterCTR	HULIGANIavg 41.9¢	$1.2K	$602.7	-$630.5	5% 2-42 (44)
maytopmay	CyberHeroavg 59.1¢	$659.02	$602.3	-$51.14	5% 8-139 (147)
JE jelly2026	CyberHeroavg 55¢	$474.72	$470.5	-$4.21	— 0-1 (1)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	HULIGANIavg 48.5¢	$291.05	$404.76	+$113.71	30% 60-139 (199)
PO PourpelNourpel	CyberHeroavg 55¢	$307.94	$302.41	+$14.07	48% 11-12 (23)
YA yadensCTR	HULIGANIavg 70.8¢	$6.3K	$268.09	$-6.1K	13% 10-70 (80)
LR lryyy	CyberHeroavg 42.9¢	$145.91	$212.32	+$66.42	60% 37-25 (62)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	CyberHeroavg 58¢	$159.99	$148.96	-$11.03	6% 12-173 (185)
38 38791873984189CTR	HULIGANIavg 29.4¢	$212.08	$138.52	-$36.65	49% 377-392 (769)
GO GooGooGaga1CTR	HULIGANIavg 59.7¢	$2.2K	$111.86	$-2.1K	— 7-12 (19)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 40¢	$53.32	$58.51	+$5.18	14% 28-178 (206)
Tolkonevminus2CTR	HULIGANIavg 69.9¢	$2.0K	$29.99	$-1.9K	28% 13-34 (47)
BA BackTestEoCaraioCTR	HULIGANIavg 41.3¢	$2.7K	$23.68	-$427.8	11% 5-39 (44)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	HULIGANIavg 40¢	$10.83	$11.23	+$0.4	30% 104-243 (347)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$13,447.62

Value

$19.1K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

16-269 (285)

Sisyphus-

CyberHero

Invested

$11,910.82

Value

$11.4K

PnL

-$407.8

Record

8-236 (244)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$6,932.73

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$767.59

Record

6-200 (206)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$6,276.145.6¢-$155.84

CyberHero$656.6323.1¢+$923.43

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

CyberHero

Invested

$3,740.92

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$181.58

Record

6-133 (139)

qwerqr1251251CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$7,324.38

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

10%

10-95 (105)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$3,055.44

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$41.22

Record

38%

38-62 (100)

Both legs:

CyberHero$1,665.0854.8¢+$672.66

HULIGANI$1,390.3647.3¢-$713.89

errormargin

CyberHero

Invested

$1,527.53

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

0-150 (150)

UNIVERSEMVPARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$5,565.69

Value

$2.8K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

18%

12-56 (68)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$3,403.756.2¢$-2.2K

CyberHero$916.3453.2¢+$393.76

calculate10

CyberHero

Invested

$2,197.5

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$902.38

Record

17%

9-43 (52)

LooksMaxxingxCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,257.42

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$122.56

Record

3-404 (407)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

CyberHero

Invested

$797.93

Value

$960.66

PnL

+$239.94

Record

50%

14-14 (28)

FatsLivesMatterCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,233.2

Value

$602.7

PnL

-$630.5

Record

2-42 (44)

maytopmay

CyberHero

Invested

$659.02

Value

$602.3

PnL

-$51.14

Record

8-139 (147)

jelly2026

CyberHero

Invested

$474.72

Value

$470.5

PnL

-$4.21

Record

—

0-1 (1)

omnibus-076daaCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$291.05

Value

$404.76

PnL

+$113.71

Record

30%

60-139 (199)

PourpelNourpel

CyberHero

Invested

$307.94

Value

$302.41

PnL

+$14.07

Record

48%

11-12 (23)

yadensCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$6,329.97

Value

$268.09

PnL

$-6.1K

Record

13%

10-70 (80)

lryyy

CyberHero

Invested

$145.91

Value

$212.32

PnL

+$66.42

Record

60%

37-25 (62)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

CyberHero

Invested

$159.99

Value

$148.96

PnL

-$11.03

Record

12-173 (185)

38791873984189CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$212.08

Value

$138.52

PnL

-$36.65

Record

49%

377-392 (769)

GooGooGaga1CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,225.93

Value

$111.86

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

—

7-12 (19)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$53.32

Value

$58.51

PnL

+$5.18

Record

14%

28-178 (206)

Tolkonevminus2CTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,999.96

Value

$29.99

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

28%

13-34 (47)

BackTestEoCaraioCTR

HULIGANI

Invested

$2,694.5

Value

$23.68

PnL

-$427.8

Record

11%

5-39 (44)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$10.83

Value

$11.23

PnL

+$0.4

Record

30%

104-243 (347)

Research grade

AvoidHULIGANI at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

13 of 23 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors CyberHero 97%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HULIGANI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.7%

3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2020.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

2120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.