Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold HULIGANI (62%) · HULIGANI at 90¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 10

HULIGANI90¢Amaru Gaming10¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

HULIGANI

Consensus Traders

HULIGANI 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 89.5¢

+17% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

HULIGANI90%

Amaru Gaming11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

HULIGANI8 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares13,565

Combined PnL-$607.94

Amaru Gaming5 traders

Total Value$605.13

Total Shares9,712

Combined PnL$-1.3K

HULIGANI — 62%Amaru Gaming — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHULIGANI 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHULIGANI 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Amaru Gaming 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	HULIGANIavg 75.8¢	$6.0K	$5.3K	-$653.96	45% 404-486 (890)
RA RandomVibecoderARB<$100	Amaru Gamingavg 13.6¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$93.11	48% 474-516 (990)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 68.2¢	$615.55	$793.87	+$178.32
└ Amaru Gaming leg	Amaru Gamingavg 13.6¢	$751.42	$662.99	-$85.2
QW qwerqr1251251	HULIGANIavg 69¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$17.29	9% 14-134 (148)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	HULIGANIavg 84.1¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$253.36	17% 14-70 (84)
OM omnibus-076daa	HULIGANIavg 88.3¢	$994.01	$985.41	-$8.59	35% 171-317 (488)
XU xuxuntao	HULIGANIavg 69¢	$648	$826.36	+$178.36	29% 16-40 (56)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Amaru Gamingavg 20¢	$1.2K	$216.51	$-1.0K	57% 503-386 (889)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	HULIGANIavg 75.3¢	$225.55	$181.84	-$0.51	48% 767-833 (1600)
└ HULIGANI leg	HULIGANIavg 75.3¢	$135.05	$121.07	-$13.98
└ Amaru Gaming leg	Amaru Gamingavg 27.6¢	$51.6	$60.78	+$13.47
Medo3DCTR	Amaru Gamingavg 21.9¢	$370.48	$169.24	-$201.24	3% 7-201 (208)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Amaru Gamingavg 21¢	$308	$146.67	-$161.33	52% 17-16 (33)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	HULIGANIavg 82.5¢	$71.72	$83.89	+$12.17	10% 41-370 (411)
NO nomoredreamCTR<$100	Amaru Gamingavg 5.3¢	$70.61	$70.43	+$99.82	16% 12-61 (73)
LR lryyy<$100	HULIGANIavg 77.9¢	$61.54	$65.71	+$4.17	50% 132-132 (264)
BA BackTestEoCaraio	HULIGANIavg 83.4¢	$549.27	$34.94	+$130.57	16% 10-54 (64)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Amaru Gamingavg 22¢	$5	$2.27	-$2.73	41% 3007-4413 (7420)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

HULIGANI

Invested

$5,971.07

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$653.96

Record

45%

404-486 (890)

RandomVibecoderARB<$100

Amaru Gaming

Invested

$1,370.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$93.11

Record

48%

474-516 (990)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$615.5568.2¢+$178.32

Amaru Gaming$751.4213.6¢-$85.2

qwerqr1251251

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,346.52

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$17.29

Record

14-134 (148)

UNIVERSEMVP

HULIGANI

Invested

$1,450.35

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$253.36

Record

17%

14-70 (84)

omnibus-076daa

HULIGANI

Invested

$994.01

Value

$985.41

PnL

-$8.59

Record

35%

171-317 (488)

xuxuntao

HULIGANI

Invested

$648

Value

$826.36

PnL

+$178.36

Record

29%

16-40 (56)

Sisyphus-CTR

Amaru Gaming

Invested

$1,237.23

Value

$216.51

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

57%

503-386 (889)

38791873984189ARB<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$225.55

Value

$181.84

PnL

-$0.51

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

Both legs:

HULIGANI$135.0575.3¢-$13.98

Amaru Gaming$51.627.6¢+$13.47

Medo3DCTR

Amaru Gaming

Invested

$370.48

Value

$169.24

PnL

-$201.24

Record

7-201 (208)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Amaru Gaming

Invested

$308

Value

$146.67

PnL

-$161.33

Record

52%

17-16 (33)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$71.72

Value

$83.89

PnL

+$12.17

Record

10%

41-370 (411)

nomoredreamCTR<$100

Amaru Gaming

Invested

$70.61

Value

$70.43

PnL

+$99.82

Record

16%

12-61 (73)

lryyy<$100

HULIGANI

Invested

$61.54

Value

$65.71

PnL

+$4.17

Record

50%

132-132 (264)

BackTestEoCaraio

HULIGANI

Invested

$549.27

Value

$34.94

PnL

+$130.57

Record

16%

10-54 (64)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Amaru Gaming

Invested

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$2.73

Record

41%

3007-4413 (7420)

Research grade

NeutralHULIGANI at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

HULIGANI

8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on HULIGANI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHULIGANI 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHULIGANI 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Amaru Gaming 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that HULIGANI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.