Dota 2: Froglings vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner

20 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (59%) · Froglings at 57¢ · $87K held · ends Nov 15

Froglings57¢LEGION43¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 59%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$86.6K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 57¢

+8% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

20 of 34 top traders (59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings57%

LEGION43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LEGION14 traders

Total Value$35.4K

Total Shares79,303

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Froglings20 traders

Total Value$48.6K

Total Shares86,743

Combined PnL+$3.4K

LEGION — 41%Froglings — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
relativesignificanceCTR	LEGIONavg 47.8¢	$16.4K	$13.9K	-$985.69	55% 171-138 (309)
Medo3D	Froglingsavg 52.2¢	$8.0K	$8.8K	+$810.93	12% 36-259 (295)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	LEGIONavg 48.9¢	$7.6K	$6.9K	-$679.76	47% 479-548 (1027)
GE GeorgeRe	Froglingsavg 53¢	$6.5K	$6.8K	+$305.55	53% 726-649 (1375)
errormargin	Froglingsavg 53.4¢	$5.7K	$6.1K	+$335.99	8% 17-192 (209)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	LEGIONavg 47.3¢	$5.4K	$5.1K	-$322.47	50% 14-14 (28)
RA RandomVibecoder	Froglingsavg 50.8¢	$3.7K	$4.1K	+$413.24	48% 546-593 (1139)
cat3xcat3x	Froglingsavg 53.5¢	$14.5K	$4.1K	+$597.5	8% 16-186 (202)
Skritopoolniy	Froglingsavg 52¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$25.81	10% 44-393 (437)
0X 0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502CTR	LEGIONavg 46¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$57.85	35% 8-15 (23)
dodsterbot	Froglingsavg 51¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$179.9	45% 516-624 (1140)
QW qwerqr1251251	Froglingsavg 56.2¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$14.41	27% 60-166 (226)
Bignum	Froglingsavg 52¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$122.5	6% 13-216 (229)
JA JabamiYumekosRBQ	Froglingsavg 50.8¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	+$176.17	72% 28-11 (39)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	LEGIONavg 45.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0.18	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 45.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$64.56
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 48.7¢	$400.83	$465.22	+$64.39
EX Excentrico	Froglingsavg 50.4¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$140.94	11% 17-136 (153)
minjiCTR	LEGIONavg 48.2¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$122.36	53% 33-29 (62)
0xheavy888CTR	LEGIONavg 48.5¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$120	56% 665-530 (1195)
A3 a37932699CTR	LEGIONavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$29	9% 18-191 (209)
GX gxxyy	Froglingsavg 57¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10	69% 517-231 (748)
shibaijiaoyiyuan	Froglingsavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$70	48% 20-22 (42)
Up0nly	Froglingsavg 53.8¢	$2.9K	$1.1K	+$10.01	60% 35-23 (58)
Tolkonevminus3	Froglingsavg 53¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$48.39	58% 44-32 (76)
DamwonChampions2026CTR	LEGIONavg 48.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$87.54	55% 34-28 (62)
KA KaguyaNg	Froglingsavg 50.4¢	$692.46	$762.27	+$69.81	— 8-3 (11)

relativesignificanceCTR

LEGION

Invested

$16,411.92

Value

$13.9K

PnL

-$985.69

Record

55%

171-138 (309)

Medo3D

Froglings

Invested

$8,034.42

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$810.93

Record

12%

36-259 (295)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

LEGION

Invested

$7,600

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$679.76

Record

47%

479-548 (1027)

GeorgeRe

Froglings

Invested

$6,477.66

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$305.55

Record

53%

726-649 (1375)

errormargin

Froglings

Invested

$5,742.71

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$335.99

Record

17-192 (209)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

LEGION

Invested

$5,439.97

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$322.47

Record

50%

14-14 (28)

RandomVibecoder

Froglings

Invested

$3,691.62

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$413.24

Record

48%

546-593 (1139)

cat3xcat3x

Froglings

Invested

$14,474.12

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$597.5

Record

16-186 (202)

Skritopoolniy

Froglings

Invested

$2,684.15

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$25.81

Record

10%

44-393 (437)

0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502CTR

LEGION

Invested

$2,661.1

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$57.85

Record

35%

8-15 (23)

dodsterbot

Froglings

Invested

$2,295

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$179.9

Record

45%

516-624 (1140)

qwerqr1251251

Froglings

Invested

$2,411.23

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$14.41

Record

27%

60-166 (226)

Bignum

Froglings

Invested

$1,819.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$122.5

Record

13-216 (229)

JabamiYumekosRBQ

Froglings

Invested

$1,838.9

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$176.17

Record

72%

28-11 (39)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

LEGION

Invested

$1,613

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

Both legs:

LEGION$1,212.1745.9¢-$64.56

Froglings$400.8348.7¢+$64.39

Excentrico

Froglings

Invested

$1,400

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$140.94

Record

11%

17-136 (153)

minjiCTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,575.6

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$122.36

Record

53%

33-29 (62)

0xheavy888CTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,455

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$120

Record

56%

665-530 (1195)

a37932699CTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,363

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$29

Record

18-191 (209)

gxxyy

Froglings

Invested

$1,140

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10

Record

69%

517-231 (748)

shibaijiaoyiyuan

Froglings

Invested

$1,040

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$70

Record

48%

20-22 (42)

Up0nly

Froglings

Invested

$2,887.04

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.01

Record

60%

35-23 (58)

Tolkonevminus3

Froglings

Invested

$1,025.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$48.39

Record

58%

44-32 (76)

DamwonChampions2026CTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,142.22

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$87.54

Record

55%

34-28 (62)

KaguyaNg

Froglings

Invested

$692.46

Value

$762.27

PnL

+$69.81

Record

—

8-3 (11)

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

20 of 34 top traders (59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.