Dota 2: Team Allied vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Zero Tenacity (54%) · Zero Tenacity at 88¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15

Team Allied13¢Zero Tenacity87¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zero Tenacity

Consensus Traders

Zero Tenacity 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$978.87

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 87.5¢

+71% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralZero Tenacity at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zero Tenacity

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Team Allied13%

Zero Tenacity88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zero Tenacity7 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares10,301

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Team Allied6 traders

Total Value$980.75

Total Shares2,506

Combined PnL-$314.7

Zero Tenacity — 54%Team Allied — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RandomVibecoder	Zero Tenacityavg 56.3¢	$3.0K	$4.5K	+$1.4K	48% 544-592 (1136)
CyberScore.live	Zero Tenacityavg 44.4¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$124	54% 42-36 (78)
CC ccllarCTR	Team Alliedavg 51.3¢	$493.86	$476.4	-$17.47	44% 62-79 (141)
PA panpidaras1CTR	Team Alliedavg 51.3¢	$424.47	$336.53	-$83.5	16% 59-307 (366)
NO NotJump	Zero Tenacityavg 50¢	$525	$255	-$15	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
poshposhARB<$100	Team Alliedavg 35.7¢	$124.15	$114.98	-$9.17	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
└ Team Allied leg	Team Alliedavg 35.7¢	$89.44	$70.15	-$19.29
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 55.8¢	$34.72	$44.83	+$10.12
PI pipipi150	Zero Tenacityavg 71¢	$102.99	$105.89	+$2.9	67% 82-40 (122)
BU BunnycatCTR	Team Alliedavg 46¢	$300	$81.52	-$218.48	60% 36-24 (60)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Team Alliedavg 42.8¢	$104.54	$75.8	-$28.74	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 53.9¢	$31.01	$48.29	+$17.29
└ Team Allied leg	Team Alliedavg 42.8¢	$73.53	$27.51	-$46.03
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Team Alliedavg 30.6¢	$53.13	$49.88	-$3.25	45% 963-1156 (2119)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Team Alliedavg 31¢	$27.36	$35.3	+$7.94	45% 363-445 (808)
38 38791873984189<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 42¢	$5.04	$5.04	+$0	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 46¢	$5	$4.56	-$0.43	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.1	-$0.3	43% 851-1135 (1986)
JO johnsonboyyCTR<$100	Team Alliedavg 50¢	$1.06	$1.11	+$0.05	48% 15-16 (31)

RandomVibecoder

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$3,025.04

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

48%

544-592 (1136)

CyberScore.live

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,892.53

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$124

Record

54%

42-36 (78)

ccllarCTR

Team Allied

Invested

$493.86

Value

$476.4

PnL

-$17.47

Record

44%

62-79 (141)

panpidaras1CTR

Team Allied

Invested

$424.47

Value

$336.53

PnL

-$83.5

Record

16%

59-307 (366)

NotJump

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$525

Value

$255

PnL

-$15

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

poshposhARB<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$124.15

Value

$114.98

PnL

-$9.17

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

Both legs:

Team Allied$89.4435.7¢-$19.29

Zero Tenacity$34.7255.8¢+$10.12

pipipi150

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$102.99

Value

$105.89

PnL

+$2.9

Record

67%

82-40 (122)

BunnycatCTR

Team Allied

Invested

$300

Value

$81.52

PnL

-$218.48

Record

60%

36-24 (60)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$104.54

Value

$75.8

PnL

-$28.74

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

Both legs:

Zero Tenacity$31.0153.9¢+$17.29

Team Allied$73.5342.8¢-$46.03

lryyyCTR<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$53.13

Value

$49.88

PnL

-$3.25

Record

45%

963-1156 (2119)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$27.36

Value

$35.3

PnL

+$7.94

Record

45%

363-445 (808)

38791873984189<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

Value

$4.56

PnL

-$0.43

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

ameisgoat11<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

43%

851-1135 (1986)

johnsonboyyCTR<$100

Team Allied

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.11

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

15-16 (31)

Research grade

NeutralZero Tenacity at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Zero Tenacity

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zero Tenacity wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.