Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Froglings, while the market favors 1win (67%). 21 of 48 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: 1win vs Froglings - Game 1 Winner

21 of 48 top Polymarket traders hold Froglings (44%) · Froglings at 34¢ · $168K held · ends Nov 15

1win67¢Froglings33¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Froglings

Consensus Traders

Froglings 44%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$168.4K

Combined PnL

$-3.5K

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 33.5¢

-39% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

21 of 48 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors 1win 67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

1win67%

Froglings34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

1win27 traders

Total Value$110.8K

Total Shares175,627

Combined PnL+$29.6K

Froglings21 traders

Total Value$54.4K

Total Shares157,073

Combined PnL$-33.0K

1win — 56%Froglings — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
dodsterbot	1winavg 43¢	$16.6K	$22.7K	+$6.4K	45% 511-620 (1131)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Froglingsavg 54.9¢	$32.2K	$19.7K	$-12.5K	47% 476-539 (1015)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341	1winavg 42.7¢	$9.8K	$15.3K	+$5.5K	16% 40-218 (258)
SC Scrip-scrip	1winavg 45.6¢	$13.3K	$13.2K	-$57.95	17% 4-19 (23)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Froglingsavg 62.8¢	$17.3K	$9.2K	$-8.1K	57% 547-408 (955)
GE GeorgeRe	1winavg 45¢	$6.5K	$8.0K	+$2.6K	53% 719-649 (1368)
RA RandomVibecoder	1winavg 45¢	$4.2K	$6.1K	+$2.0K	48% 538-590 (1128)
JE jelly2026	1winavg 61.7¢	$6.1K	$6.1K	+$84.65	54% 92-78 (170)
errormargin	1winavg 54.9¢	$6.8K	$6.1K	+$385.81	8% 16-186 (202)
Tolkonevminus2CTR	Froglingsavg 54.8¢	$9.7K	$5.9K	$-3.8K	48% 75-81 (156)
cat3xcat3x	1winavg 41.7¢	$9.4K	$5.5K	+$3.4K	6% 11-183 (194)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	Froglingsavg 56.9¢	$8.7K	$5.1K	$-3.6K	— 9-6 (15)
0X 0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115	1winavg 43.3¢	$6.5K	$5.1K	+$3.2K	17% 17-85 (102)
BU Bunnycat	1winavg 40.6¢	$2.5K	$4.1K	+$1.6K	57% 29-22 (51)
relativesignificance	1winavg 41.7¢	$8.5K	$3.7K	+$352.42	55% 164-133 (297)
Tolkonevminus3	1winavg 41.1¢	$1.7K	$2.8K	+$1.1K	57% 39-29 (68)
GX gxxyyARB<$100	1winavg 59.7¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$223.5	69% 511-228 (739)
└ 1win leg	1winavg 59.7¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$213.66
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 33¢	$649.43	$659.27	+$9.84
forsenxdCTR	Froglingsavg 43.6¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$253.83	49% 378-397 (775)
QW qwerqr1251251	1winavg 55.8¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$242.06	26% 56-162 (218)
WE westing.v1	1winavg 48¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$538.49	22% 29-100 (129)
DamwonChampions2026CTR	Froglingsavg 47.2¢	$2.8K	$1.9K	-$884.12	56% 25-20 (45)
0xheavy888CTR	Froglingsavg 48.9¢	$2.6K	$1.7K	-$863.82	55% 522-427 (949)
FatsLivesMatter	1winavg 45¢	$888.56	$1.3K	+$425.27	23% 21-71 (92)
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR	Froglingsavg 38.1¢	$5.5K	$1.3K	-$806.55	36% 63-110 (173)
Up0nly	1winavg 54.6¢	$2.8K	$1.3K	+$309.8	63% 30-18 (48)

dodsterbot

1win

Invested

$16,560.63

Value

$22.7K

PnL

+$6.4K

Record

45%

511-620 (1131)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Froglings

Invested

$32,200

Value

$19.7K

PnL

$-12.5K

Record

47%

476-539 (1015)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341

1win

Invested

$9,823.72

Value

$15.3K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

16%

40-218 (258)

Scrip-scrip

1win

Invested

$13,274.04

Value

$13.2K

PnL

-$57.95

Record

17%

4-19 (23)

Sisyphus-CTR

Froglings

Invested

$17,295.05

Value

$9.2K

PnL

$-8.1K

Record

57%

547-408 (955)

GeorgeRe

1win

Invested

$6,499.8

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

53%

719-649 (1368)

RandomVibecoder

1win

Invested

$4,152.22

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

48%

538-590 (1128)

jelly2026

1win

Invested

$6,104.08

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$84.65

Record

54%

92-78 (170)

errormargin

1win

Invested

$6,789.98

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$385.81

Record

16-186 (202)

Tolkonevminus2CTR

Froglings

Invested

$9,698.94

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

48%

75-81 (156)

cat3xcat3x

1win

Invested

$9,385.19

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

11-183 (194)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Froglings

Invested

$8,677.47

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

—

9-6 (15)

0x6453Db824e2bFa4eAcE63b16F716ba663cf66a16-1740178698115

1win

Invested

$6,499.99

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

17%

17-85 (102)

Bunnycat

1win

Invested

$2,500

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

57%

29-22 (51)

relativesignificance

1win

Invested

$8,472.62

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$352.42

Record

55%

164-133 (297)

Tolkonevminus3

1win

Invested

$1,717.63

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

57%

39-29 (68)

gxxyyARB<$100

1win

Invested

$2,515.64

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$223.5

Record

69%

511-228 (739)

Both legs:

1win$1,866.2159.7¢+$213.66

Froglings$649.4333¢+$9.84

forsenxdCTR

Froglings

Invested

$2,066.53

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$253.83

Record

49%

378-397 (775)

qwerqr1251251

1win

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$242.06

Record

26%

56-162 (218)

westing.v1

1win

Invested

$1,813.9

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$538.49

Record

22%

29-100 (129)

DamwonChampions2026CTR

Froglings

Invested

$2,834.12

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$884.12

Record

56%

25-20 (45)

0xheavy888CTR

Froglings

Invested

$2,575.67

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$863.82

Record

55%

522-427 (949)

FatsLivesMatter

1win

Invested

$888.56

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$425.27

Record

23%

21-71 (92)

UNIVERSEMVPCTR

Froglings

Invested

$5,463.26

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$806.55

Record

36%

63-110 (173)

Up0nly

1win

Invested

$2,772.71

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$309.8

Record

63%

30-18 (48)

Research grade

NeutralFroglings at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Froglings

21 of 48 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors 1win 67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Froglings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.