Will Brøndby IF win on 2026-11-08?
10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 83%
$1.9K
-$741.2
82.2¢ → 97.5¢
+19% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 79.4¢ | $1.2K | $913.9 | -$260.38 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 86¢ | $463.52 | $396.97 | -$47.55 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 80.9¢ | $257 | $134.3 | -$43.73 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 82.7¢ | $127.95 | $123.7 | -$4.25 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 80.5¢ | $60.8 | $60.93 | +$0.13 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $55.1 | $54.54 | -$0.56 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $306.64 | $51.81 | -$254.84 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $49.41 | $49.89 | +$0.49 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 82.3¢ | $39.91 | $36.62 | -$3.29 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $29.4 | $30.52 | +$1.12 | 49% 15008-15929 (30937) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 22.8¢ | $144.9 | $15.91 | -$128.99 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
WA WagerWizard<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $13.21 | $13.84 | +$0.64 | 84% 15082-2932 (18014) |
Invested
$1,174.28
Value
$913.9
PnL
-$260.38
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$463.52
Value
$396.97
PnL
-$47.55
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$257
Value
$134.3
PnL
-$43.73
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$127.95
Value
$123.7
PnL
-$4.25
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$60.8
Value
$60.93
PnL
+$0.13
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$55.1
Value
$54.54
PnL
-$0.56
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
Invested
$306.64
Value
$51.81
PnL
-$254.84
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$49.41
Value
$49.89
PnL
+$0.49
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
Invested
$39.91
Value
$36.62
PnL
-$3.29
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$30.52
PnL
+$1.12
Record
49%
15008-15929 (30937)
RN1CTRInvested
$144.9
Value
$15.91
PnL
-$128.99
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$13.21
Value
$13.84
PnL
+$0.64
Record
84%
15082-2932 (18014)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.