Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold SINQU, while the market favors Younglings (54%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: Younglings vs SINQU (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold SINQU (42%) · SINQU at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Younglings54¢SINQU46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SINQU

Consensus Traders

SINQU 42%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$184.63

Smart Money Entry

41.7¢ → 46.5¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSINQU at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SINQU

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Younglings 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Younglings54%

SINQU47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SINQU5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,830

Combined PnL+$281.59

Younglings7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,151

Combined PnL-$96.96

SINQU — 42%Younglings — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
lma0o0o0oCTR	SINQUavg 44.2¢	$887.43	$932.93	+$45.5	54% 34-29 (63)
dicekingCTR	SINQUavg 41.6¢	$817.88	$914.55	+$96.67	— 5-3 (8)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR	SINQUavg 39.1¢	$715.84	$851.92	+$136.08	— 1-0 (1)
38 38791873984189	Younglingsavg 56.3¢	$505.88	$447.71	-$42.17	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
CI cigarettes	Younglingsavg 56.3¢	$242.62	$230.42	-$12.2	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
poshposh	Younglingsavg 59.3¢	$170.98	$165.73	-$5.24	47% 786-902 (1688)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Younglingsavg 61¢	$186.86	$147.47	-$39.39	43% 312-419 (731)
LR lryyy	Younglingsavg 59.2¢	$132.29	$134.89	+$2.6	45% 595-734 (1329)
JA JabJabichCTR<$100	SINQUavg 36.5¢	$7.3	$10.4	+$3.1	11% 5-42 (47)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Younglingsavg 52.3¢	$8	$7.72	-$0.28	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Younglingsavg 53.2¢	$5.63	$5.35	-$0.28	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	SINQUavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.33	+$0.23	48% 20-22 (42)

lma0o0o0oCTR

SINQU

Invested

$887.43

Value

$932.93

PnL

+$45.5

Record

54%

34-29 (63)

dicekingCTR

SINQU

Invested

$817.88

Value

$914.55

PnL

+$96.67

Record

—

5-3 (8)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR

SINQU

Invested

$715.84

Value

$851.92

PnL

+$136.08

Record

—

1-0 (1)

38791873984189

Younglings

Invested

$505.88

Value

$447.71

PnL

-$42.17

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

cigarettes

Younglings

Invested

$242.62

Value

$230.42

PnL

-$12.2

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

poshposh

Younglings

Invested

$170.98

Value

$165.73

PnL

-$5.24

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Younglings

Invested

$186.86

Value

$147.47

PnL

-$39.39

Record

43%

312-419 (731)

lryyy

Younglings

Invested

$132.29

Value

$134.89

PnL

+$2.6

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

JabJabichCTR<$100

SINQU

Invested

$7.3

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$3.1

Record

11%

5-42 (47)

ferdinand2<$100

Younglings

Invested

Value

$7.72

PnL

-$0.28

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

Flaznorp<$100

Younglings

Invested

$5.63

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0.28

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

GGLPLCTR<$100

SINQU

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

20-22 (42)

Research grade

NeutralSINQU at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

SINQU

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Younglings 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SINQU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.