Counter-Strike: Voca vs LAG Gaming (BO5) - Austin LAN Playoffs

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Voca (64%) · Voca at 78¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 16

Voca78¢LAG Gaming22¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Voca

Consensus Traders

Voca 64%

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

-$19.96

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 78¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralVoca at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Voca

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Voca78%

LAG Gaming22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Voca7 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares14,206

Combined PnL-$10.57

LAG Gaming4 traders

Total Value$68.37

Total Shares459

Combined PnL-$9.39

Voca — 64%LAG Gaming — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Voca. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVoca 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Voca 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabich	Vocaavg 80¢	$8.2K	$8.0K	-$149.99	42% 67-92 (159)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Vocaavg 74.6¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$123.29	54% 183-158 (341)
fyrsken	Vocaavg 77¢	$307.42	$315.4	+$7.98	48% 74-81 (155)
31 319113331313111	Vocaavg 82.8¢	$264.33	$265.27	+$0.94	55% 220-182 (402)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Vocaavg 80.6¢	$184.44	$191.64	+$7.2	61% 217-137 (354)
KA Kaczka	Vocaavg 79¢	$150	$149.05	-$0.95	12% 29-217 (246)
relativesignificance<$100	Vocaavg 78¢	$75	$75.96	+$0.96	56% 178-140 (318)
poshposhCTR<$100	LAG Gamingavg 18.5¢	$49.23	$36.02	-$13.21	48% 1402-1508 (2910)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	LAG Gamingavg 13.2¢	$12.91	$13.24	+$0.32	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	LAG Gamingavg 19¢	$18.62	$10.78	+$4.02	51% 206-201 (407)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	LAG Gamingavg 19.7¢	$8.86	$8.33	-$0.52	50% 2305-2302 (4607)

JabJabich

Voca

Invested

$8,187.67

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$149.99

Record

42%

67-92 (159)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Voca

Invested

$2,068.07

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$123.29

Record

54%

183-158 (341)

fyrsken

Voca

Invested

$307.42

Value

$315.4

PnL

+$7.98

Record

48%

74-81 (155)

319113331313111

Voca

Invested

$264.33

Value

$265.27

PnL

+$0.94

Record

55%

220-182 (402)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Voca

Invested

$184.44

Value

$191.64

PnL

+$7.2

Record

61%

217-137 (354)

Kaczka

Voca

Invested

$150

Value

$149.05

PnL

-$0.95

Record

12%

29-217 (246)

relativesignificance<$100

Voca

Invested

$75

Value

$75.96

PnL

+$0.96

Record

56%

178-140 (318)

poshposhCTR<$100

LAG Gaming

Invested

$49.23

Value

$36.02

PnL

-$13.21

Record

48%

1402-1508 (2910)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

LAG Gaming

Invested

$12.91

Value

$13.24

PnL

+$0.32

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

LAG Gaming

Invested

$18.62

Value

$10.78

PnL

+$4.02

Record

51%

206-201 (407)

Pan9XCTR<$100

LAG Gaming

Invested

$8.86

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$0.52

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

Research grade

NeutralVoca at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Voca

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Voca. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVoca 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Voca 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Voca wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.