Counter-Strike: Voca vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - Austin LAN Playoffs

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Voca (33%) · Voca at 88¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Voca88¢Iowa Stormboar12¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Voca

Consensus Traders

Voca 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$116.88

Smart Money Entry

86.6¢ → 87.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralVoca at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Voca

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Voca88%

Iowa Stormboar13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Voca3 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,651

Combined PnL+$118.74

Iowa Stormboar6 traders

Total Value$460.84

Total Shares1,915

Combined PnL-$1.86

Voca — 33%Iowa Stormboar — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Voca. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpIowa Stormboar 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrIowa Stormboar 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Iowa Stormboar 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabich	Vocaavg 86.8¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$105.76	35% 48-89 (137)
NO NotJumpCTR	Iowa Stormboaravg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Vocaavg 82.8¢	$206.61	$219.59	+$12.98	54% 179-150 (329)
SU suntoriCTR	Iowa Stormboaravg 13¢	$142.85	$131.91	-$10.94	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Vocaavg 88¢	$66.24	$64.16	-$2.08	62% 207-127 (334)
└ Voca leg	Vocaavg 88¢	$44	$44	+$0
└ Iowa Stormboar leg	Iowa Stormboaravg 13.2¢	$22.24	$20.16	-$2.08
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Vocaavg 88¢	$45.25	$45.25	-$0	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
31 319113331313111CTR<$100	Iowa Stormboaravg 9.6¢	$34.51	$43.26	+$8.75	55% 209-171 (380)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Iowa Stormboaravg 10.1¢	$9.5	$11.33	+$1.83	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Iowa Stormboaravg 17¢	$8.42	$5.94	-$2.48	51% 202-191 (393)
poshposhCTR<$100	Iowa Stormboaravg 10¢	$4.92	$5.9	+$0.98	49% 1336-1411 (2747)

JabJabich

Voca

Invested

$2,909.7

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$105.76

Record

35%

48-89 (137)

NotJumpCTR

Iowa Stormboar

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Voca

Invested

$206.61

Value

$219.59

PnL

+$12.98

Record

54%

179-150 (329)

suntoriCTR

Iowa Stormboar

Invested

$142.85

Value

$131.91

PnL

-$10.94

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Voca

Invested

$66.24

Value

$64.16

PnL

-$2.08

Record

62%

207-127 (334)

Both legs:

Voca$4488¢+$0

Iowa Stormboar$22.2413.2¢-$2.08

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Voca

Invested

$45.25

Value

$45.25

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

319113331313111CTR<$100

Iowa Stormboar

Invested

$34.51

Value

$43.26

PnL

+$8.75

Record

55%

209-171 (380)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Iowa Stormboar

Invested

$9.5

Value

$11.33

PnL

+$1.83

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Iowa Stormboar

Invested

$8.42

Value

$5.94

PnL

-$2.48

Record

51%

202-191 (393)

poshposhCTR<$100

Iowa Stormboar

Invested

$4.92

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$0.98

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

Research grade

NeutralVoca at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Voca

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Voca. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpIowa Stormboar 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrIowa Stormboar 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Iowa Stormboar 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Voca wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.