Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (65%) · Vitality at 67¢ · $82K held · ends Nov 11

Vitality67¢Team Falcons33¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitality

Consensus Traders

Vitality 65%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$81.9K

Combined PnL

$7.9K

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 66.5¢

+49% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vitality67%

Team Falcons34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Falcons6 traders

Total Value$27.4K

Total Shares51,546

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Vitality11 traders

Total Value$47.2K

Total Shares84,497

Combined PnL+$9.6K

Team Falcons — 35%Vitality — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVitality 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperTeam Falcons 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrVitality 83% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedVitality 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Vitality 65% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	Team Falconsavg 56¢	$25.2K	$23.8K	$-1.3K	56% 379-298 (677)
vtcchampion52	Vitalityavg 43.6¢	$8.9K	$13.4K	+$4.4K	48% 844-900 (1744)
UB ubetteruuuu	Vitalityavg 48.9¢	$9.8K	$13.2K	+$3.3K	11% 13-104 (117)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	Vitalityavg 44¢	$10.8K	$11.3K	+$770.22	52% 1346-1232 (2578)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 49¢	$6.6K	$6.4K	-$129.41	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 43.4¢	$2.3K	$3.4K	+$1.1K
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 49¢	$4.3K	$3.0K	$-1.3K
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Vitalityavg 42¢	$5.6K	$6.3K	+$672.53	51% 3682-3522 (7204)
AS asuka7CTR	Team Falconsavg 58.8¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$180.26	2% 5-304 (309)
polaroid14CTR	Team Falconsavg 57.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$90	— 1-1 (2)
VeryLucky888	Vitalityavg 37¢	$685.52	$870.8	+$185.28	51% 354-335 (689)
IW iWasEnoughCTR	Team Falconsavg 56¢	$859.38	$826.17	-$33.21	— 2-1 (3)
FR frohp5	Vitalityavg 43¢	$750	$819.77	+$69.77	60% 1220-803 (2023)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 62.9¢	$966.36	$819.49	-$146.87	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 39.7¢	$262.53	$433.61	+$171.08
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 62.9¢	$703.83	$385.88	-$317.95
PA panpidaras1	Vitalityavg 44.4¢	$500	$529.34	+$29.34	5% 14-261 (275)
10 10scat	Vitalityavg 43¢	$450	$491.86	+$41.86	2% 12-513 (525)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Vitalityavg 41¢	$164	$188	+$24	12% 105-801 (906)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Vitalityavg 43¢	$160	$174.88	+$14.88	17% 81-386 (467)
relativesignificance<$100	Vitalityavg 39¢	$57.29	$69.05	+$11.75	57% 145-111 (256)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Team Falconsavg 48¢	$46.12	$32.92	-$4.34	27% 201-533 (734)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Team Falconsavg 58¢	$5.47	$5	-$0.47	40% 246-365 (611)

WiretransferxyzCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$25,199.96

Value

$23.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

56%

379-298 (677)

vtcchampion52

Vitality

Invested

$8,927.32

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

48%

844-900 (1744)

ubetteruuuu

Vitality

Invested

$9,825.64

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

11%

13-104 (117)

THEHIGHLIFE

Vitality

Invested

$10,763.81

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$770.22

Record

52%

1346-1232 (2578)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$6,564.09

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$129.41

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

Both legs:

Vitality$2,253.5643.4¢+$1.1K

Team Falcons$4,310.5349¢$-1.3K

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Vitality

Invested

$5,644.55

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$672.53

Record

51%

3682-3522 (7204)

asuka7CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,836.63

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$180.26

Record

5-304 (309)

polaroid14CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,149.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$90

Record

—

1-1 (2)

VeryLucky888

Vitality

Invested

$685.52

Value

$870.8

PnL

+$185.28

Record

51%

354-335 (689)

iWasEnoughCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$859.38

Value

$826.17

PnL

-$33.21

Record

—

2-1 (3)

frohp5

Vitality

Invested

$750

Value

$819.77

PnL

+$69.77

Record

60%

1220-803 (2023)

takeormakeARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$966.36

Value

$819.49

PnL

-$146.87

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

Both legs:

Vitality$262.5339.7¢+$171.08

Team Falcons$703.8362.9¢-$317.95

panpidaras1

Vitality

Invested

$500

Value

$529.34

PnL

+$29.34

Record

14-261 (275)

10scat

Vitality

Invested

$450

Value

$491.86

PnL

+$41.86

Record

12-513 (525)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Vitality

Invested

$164

Value

$188

PnL

+$24

Record

12%

105-801 (906)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Vitality

Invested

$160

Value

$174.88

PnL

+$14.88

Record

17%

81-386 (467)

relativesignificance<$100

Vitality

Invested

$57.29

Value

$69.05

PnL

+$11.75

Record

57%

145-111 (256)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$46.12

Value

$32.92

PnL

-$4.34

Record

27%

201-533 (734)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$5.47

Value

PnL

-$0.47

Record

40%

246-365 (611)

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

11 of 17 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVitality 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperTeam Falcons 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrVitality 83% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedVitality 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Vitality 65% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitality wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.