Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (55%) · Spirit at 74¢ · $52K held · ends Nov 11

Spirit74¢FUT Esports26¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 55%

Total Value

$51.6K

Combined PnL

-$472.41

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 74¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit74%

FUT Esports26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit6 traders

Total Value$43.7K

Total Shares58,800

Combined PnL+$1.1K

FUT Esports5 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares30,570

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Spirit — 55%FUT Esports — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpirit 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabich	Spiritavg 70.1¢	$20.5K	$21.7K	+$1.3K	62% 213-132 (345)
relativesignificance	Spiritavg 72.3¢	$14.8K	$15.1K	+$348.76	57% 154-118 (272)
LL lllllllIlll	Spiritavg 77.6¢	$5.7K	$5.5K	-$263.06	54% 322-277 (599)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	FUT Esportsavg 31¢	$6.2K	$5.2K	$-1.0K	50% 1312-1300 (2612)
VI vibing123CTR	FUT Esportsavg 31¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$304.49	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
GH ghorrock	Spiritavg 73.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$2.89	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
Stickman22CTR	FUT Esportsavg 31¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$220	51% 1739-1648 (3387)
IW iWasEnoughCTR	FUT Esportsavg 31¢	$309	$244.21	-$64.79	51% 12179-11582 (23761)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Spiritavg 69.1¢	$79.3	$75.21	-$0.54	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
RA Rayaya	Spiritavg 68¢	$978.65	$44.13	-$249.9	61% 1227-797 (2024)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	FUT Esportsavg 26.8¢	$12.74	$8.59	+$1.37	33% 20011-40834 (60845)

JabJabich

Spirit

Invested

$20,466.4

Value

$21.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

62%

213-132 (345)

relativesignificance

Spirit

Invested

$14,770.2

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$348.76

Record

57%

154-118 (272)

lllllllIlll

Spirit

Invested

$5,737.52

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$263.06

Record

54%

322-277 (599)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$6,200

Value

$5.2K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

50%

1312-1300 (2612)

vibing123CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,716.23

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$304.49

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

ghorrock

Spirit

Invested

$1,303.66

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$2.89

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Stickman22CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,239.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$220

Record

51%

1739-1648 (3387)

iWasEnoughCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$309

Value

$244.21

PnL

-$64.79

Record

51%

12179-11582 (23761)

Oddstorm<$100

Spirit

Invested

$79.3

Value

$75.21

PnL

-$0.54

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

Rayaya

Spirit

Invested

$978.65

Value

$44.13

PnL

-$249.9

Record

61%

1227-797 (2024)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$12.74

Value

$8.59

PnL

+$1.37

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpirit 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.