Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Spirit, while the market favors FURIA (65%). 22 of 57 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner

22 of 57 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (39%) · Spirit at 36¢ · $292K held · ends Nov 15

Spirit36¢FURIA64¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 39%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$292.1K

Combined PnL

$-25.2K

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 35.5¢

-40% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

22 of 57 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors FURIA 65%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spirit36%

FURIA65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA35 traders

Total Value$141.3K

Total Shares281,634

Combined PnL+$21.9K

Spirit22 traders

Total Value$114.3K

Total Shares270,448

Combined PnL$-47.1K

FURIA — 61%Spirit — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	FURIAavg 34¢	$26.5K	$37.1K	+$10.5K	51% 3925-3721 (7646)
MD MD14CTR	Spiritavg 66¢	$64.9K	$34.9K	$-30.0K	82% 27-6 (33)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Spiritavg 53¢	$29.0K	$29.3K	+$273.42	4% 9-207 (216)
BR Brz4629ARB<$100	FURIAavg 41.5¢	$15.3K	$17.9K	+$2.7K	69% 33-15 (48)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 41.5¢	$9.1K	$14.1K	+$5.0K
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 57.6¢	$6.1K	$3.8K	$-2.4K
Sunshine.Smile	FURIAavg 47.4¢	$20.1K	$17.2K	$-2.9K	50% 12-12 (24)
FA fantasy7788CTR	Spiritavg 55¢	$19.1K	$12.3K	$-6.8K	44% 121-156 (277)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	FURIAavg 40.6¢	$8.0K	$9.1K	+$1.1K	56% 4148-3245 (7393)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 40.6¢	$4.0K	$6.4K	+$2.4K
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 52.2¢	$4.0K	$2.7K	$-1.3K
CORGIICTR	Spiritavg 54¢	$11.1K	$8.3K	$-2.8K	2% 9-493 (502)
RE redvinnyCTR	Spiritavg 75.5¢	$13.7K	$7.7K	$-4.3K	31% 61-139 (200)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha	FURIAavg 46.4¢	$7.6K	$7.5K	-$140.01	50% 109-108 (217)
FK fkALG2FalconsTESMOUZ	FURIAavg 45.9¢	$5.0K	$7.1K	+$2.0K	46% 906-1076 (1982)
FE fengdubisheng117	FURIAavg 46.6¢	$5.0K	$6.4K	+$1.4K	15% 11-60 (71)
0X 0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048	FURIAavg 47¢	$5.0K	$6.3K	+$1.3K	60% 24-16 (40)
0xheavy888	FURIAavg 35.7¢	$3.4K	$6.1K	+$2.7K	56% 657-526 (1183)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	FURIAavg 58.8¢	$23.4K	$6.0K	+$926.03	61% 193-122 (315)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 58.8¢	$4.3K	$4.7K	+$2.3K
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 55.3¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	$-1.4K
LU luckycat888888	FURIAavg 46¢	$5.5K	$5.6K	+$60	32% 59-127 (186)
IP ipop00CTR	Spiritavg 54¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$50	— 13-3 (16)
AP AppleTiiime	FURIAavg 45¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$50	51% 110-104 (214)
Greedo	FURIAavg 45¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$50	49% 194-200 (394)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	FURIAavg 46¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$140.02	5% 15-305 (320)
forsenxd	FURIAavg 45.8¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$27.13	49% 380-403 (783)
vtcchampion52CTR	Spiritavg 43.1¢	$3.8K	$3.1K	-$668.41	48% 876-942 (1818)
shibaijiaoyiyuan	FURIAavg 34.1¢	$6.5K	$3.0K	+$1.4K	49% 17-18 (35)
RNGUzi	FURIAavg 57¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$319.81	5% 8-168 (176)
minji	FURIAavg 38¢	$1.5K	$2.6K	+$1.1K	54% 30-26 (56)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

FURIA

Invested

$26,541.65

Value

$37.1K

PnL

+$10.5K

Record

51%

3925-3721 (7646)

MD14CTR

Spirit

Invested

$64,865.26

Value

$34.9K

PnL

$-30.0K

Record

82%

27-6 (33)

lllllllIlllCTR

Spirit

Invested

$28,982.36

Value

$29.3K

PnL

+$273.42

Record

9-207 (216)

Brz4629ARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$15,297.63

Value

$17.9K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

69%

33-15 (48)

Both legs:

FURIA$9,085.8441.5¢+$5.0K

Spirit$6,136.657.6¢$-2.4K

Sunshine.Smile

FURIA

Invested

$20,127.61

Value

$17.2K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

50%

12-12 (24)

fantasy7788CTR

Spirit

Invested

$19,050.8

Value

$12.3K

PnL

$-6.8K

Record

44%

121-156 (277)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$7,963.67

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

56%

4148-3245 (7393)

Both legs:

FURIA$4,005.9340.6¢+$2.4K

Spirit$3,957.7452.2¢$-1.3K

CORGIICTR

Spirit

Invested

$11,094.89

Value

$8.3K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

9-493 (502)

redvinnyCTR

Spirit

Invested

$13,663.34

Value

$7.7K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

31%

61-139 (200)

AnibalAugustoSardinha

FURIA

Invested

$7,621.51

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$140.01

Record

50%

109-108 (217)

fkALG2FalconsTESMOUZ

FURIA

Invested

$5,046.76

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

46%

906-1076 (1982)

fengdubisheng117

FURIA

Invested

$5,000

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

15%

11-60 (71)

0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048

FURIA

Invested

$5,000

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

60%

24-16 (40)

0xheavy888

FURIA

Invested

$3,373.6

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

56%

657-526 (1183)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$23,393.3

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$926.03

Record

61%

193-122 (315)

Both legs:

FURIA$4,288.2158.8¢+$2.3K

Spirit$2,039.0855.3¢$-1.4K

luckycat888888

FURIA

Invested

$5,520

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$60

Record

32%

59-127 (186)

ipop00CTR

Spirit

Invested

$5,399.46

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$50

Record

—

13-3 (16)

AppleTiiime

FURIA

Invested

$4,500

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$50

Record

51%

110-104 (214)

Greedo

FURIA

Invested

$4,500

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$50

Record

49%

194-200 (394)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

FURIA

Invested

$4,317.85

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$140.02

Record

15-305 (320)

forsenxd

FURIA

Invested

$3,778.15

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$27.13

Record

49%

380-403 (783)

vtcchampion52CTR

Spirit

Invested

$3,773.82

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$668.41

Record

48%

876-942 (1818)

shibaijiaoyiyuan

FURIA

Invested

$6,469.23

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

49%

17-18 (35)

RNGUzi

FURIA

Invested

$2,430.59

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$319.81

Record

8-168 (176)

minji

FURIA

Invested

$1,521.11

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

30-26 (56)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

22 of 57 top traders (39%)Underdog side (market favors FURIA 65%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.