Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (50%) · Spirit at 60¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 15

Spirit60¢FURIA40¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 50%

Total Value

$44.4K

Combined PnL

$275.49

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 59.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit60%

FURIA41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit6 traders

Total Value$37.4K

Total Shares63,048

Combined PnL+$347.93

FURIA6 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares17,339

Combined PnL-$72.44

Spirit — 50%FURIA — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpirit 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	Spiritavg 59¢	$33.0K	$33.3K	+$279.55	4% 9-207 (216)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	FURIAavg 41¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$62.5	51% 109-104 (213)
MaoZeDonK	Spiritavg 55.5¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$49.23	58% 49-35 (84)
AS asuka7	Spiritavg 59¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$15.31	9% 31-328 (359)
forsenxdCTR	FURIAavg 40.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$3.98	49% 380-403 (783)
VeryLucky888CTR	FURIAavg 40.7¢	$474.85	$473.05	-$1.8	53% 1805-1593 (3398)
MD MD14	Spiritavg 58¢	$419.23	$422.85	+$3.61	82% 27-6 (33)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	FURIAavg 50¢	$450	$101.25	-$0.75	65% 144-79 (223)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	FURIAavg 43.6¢	$72.2	$68.8	-$3.41	48% 3854-4218 (8072)
FA fantasy7788<$100	Spiritavg 56¢	$17	$17.3	+$0.3	44% 121-156 (277)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	FURIAavg 44¢	$5	$5	+$0	38% 3782-6154 (9936)
SU suntori<$100	Spiritavg 57¢	$4.76	$4.68	-$0.08	46% 3106-3639 (6745)

lllllllIlll

Spirit

Invested

$32,987.2

Value

$33.3K

PnL

+$279.55

Record

9-207 (216)

AppleTiiimeCTR

FURIA

Invested

$5,125

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$62.5

Record

51%

109-104 (213)

MaoZeDonK

Spirit

Invested

$1,839.17

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$49.23

Record

58%

49-35 (84)

asuka7

Spirit

Invested

$1,807.04

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$15.31

Record

31-328 (359)

forsenxdCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,317.88

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$3.98

Record

49%

380-403 (783)

VeryLucky888CTR

FURIA

Invested

$474.85

Value

$473.05

PnL

-$1.8

Record

53%

1805-1593 (3398)

MD14

Spirit

Invested

$419.23

Value

$422.85

PnL

+$3.61

Record

82%

27-6 (33)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

FURIA

Invested

$450

Value

$101.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

65%

144-79 (223)

38791873984189CTR<$100

FURIA

Invested

$72.2

Value

$68.8

PnL

-$3.41

Record

48%

3854-4218 (8072)

fantasy7788<$100

Spirit

Invested

$17

Value

$17.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

44%

121-156 (277)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

FURIA

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

3782-6154 (9936)

suntori<$100

Spirit

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$0.08

Record

46%

3106-3639 (6745)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpirit 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.