Counter-Strike: STATE vs TheChampionGG (BO3) - United21 Group C
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold STATE (100%) · STATE at 91¢ · $717 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
STATE
6
STATE 100%
$717.41
$2.62
90.2¢ → 90.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralSTATE at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on STATE. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima | STATEavg 91¢ | $500 | $452.5 | -$2.5 | 47% 8738-9892 (18630) |
FL Flaznorp | STATEavg 89.8¢ | $117 | $117.94 | +$0.94 | 52% 49211-46180 (95391) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | STATEavg 87.7¢ | $66.36 | $68.47 | +$2.11 | 53% 28233-25512 (53745) |
SE sentrio<$100 | STATEavg 89.1¢ | $33.62 | $34.16 | +$0.54 | 51% 28741-28115 (56856) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100 | STATEavg 89¢ | $25.81 | $26.25 | +$0.44 | 53% 6664-5979 (12643) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | STATEavg 85¢ | $17 | $18.1 | +$1.1 | 48% 71751-77431 (149182) |
Invested
$500
Value
$452.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
47%
8738-9892 (18630)
Invested
$117
Value
$117.94
PnL
+$0.94
Record
52%
49211-46180 (95391)
Invested
$66.36
Value
$68.47
PnL
+$2.11
Record
53%
28233-25512 (53745)
Invested
$33.62
Value
$34.16
PnL
+$0.54
Record
51%
28741-28115 (56856)
Invested
$25.81
Value
$26.25
PnL
+$0.44
Record
53%
6664-5979 (12643)
Invested
$17
Value
$18.1
PnL
+$1.1
Record
48%
71751-77431 (149182)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.