Counter-Strike: SINNERS Legacy vs Thousand (BO3) - MČR Group A

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold SINNERS Legacy (56%) · SINNERS Legacy at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 6

SINNERS Legacy>99¢Thousand<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SINNERS Legacy

Consensus Traders

SINNERS Legacy 56%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$259.28

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 100¢

+95% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSINNERS Legacy at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SINNERS Legacy

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

SINNERS Legacy100%

Thousand0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SINNERS Legacy5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,136

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Thousand4 traders

Total Value$151.85

Total Shares3,107

Combined PnL$-1.1K

SINNERS Legacy — 56%Thousand — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on SINNERS Legacy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on SINNERS Legacy) and the top 1000 (7 on Thousand) disagree here.

sharpThousand 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrSINNERS Legacy 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedSINNERS Legacy 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thousand 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	SINNERS Legacyavg 46.6¢	$1.5K	$2.6K	+$1.4K	58% 47122-33996 (81118)
XT xtxpleasecallme	SINNERS Legacyavg 99.8¢	$264.82	$265.35	+$0.53	34% 19497-37084 (56581)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR	Thousandavg 42¢	$279.36	$140.86	-$138.49	53% 1203-1058 (2261)
38 38791873984189	SINNERS Legacyavg 48.3¢	$485.58	$128.51	-$9.37	48% 61956-66813 (128769)
PA Pan9X<$100	SINNERS Legacyavg 48.3¢	$12.08	$24.97	+$12.91	54% 10107-8484 (18591)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Thousandavg 49¢	$9.61	$5.5	-$4.11	55% 1405-1159 (2564)
RL RLWG<$100	SINNERS Legacyavg 48¢	$2.4	$4.99	+$2.59	50% 8365-8424 (16789)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Thousandavg 42¢	$6.3	$4.21	-$2.09	50% 26140-25802 (51942)
JA JabJabichCTR	Thousandavg 37.6¢	$2.6K	$1.29	-$965.13	61% 202-129 (331)

VeryLucky888

SINNERS Legacy

Invested

$1,478.51

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

58%

47122-33996 (81118)

xtxpleasecallme

SINNERS Legacy

Invested

$264.82

Value

$265.35

PnL

+$0.53

Record

34%

19497-37084 (56581)

TommyLeePeecaCTR

Thousand

Invested

$279.36

Value

$140.86

PnL

-$138.49

Record

53%

1203-1058 (2261)

38791873984189

SINNERS Legacy

Invested

$485.58

Value

$128.51

PnL

-$9.37

Record

48%

61956-66813 (128769)

Pan9X<$100

SINNERS Legacy

Invested

$12.08

Value

$24.97

PnL

+$12.91

Record

54%

10107-8484 (18591)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Thousand

Invested

$9.61

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$4.11

Record

55%

1405-1159 (2564)

RLWG<$100

SINNERS Legacy

Invested

$2.4

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$2.59

Record

50%

8365-8424 (16789)

sentrioCTR<$100

Thousand

Invested

$6.3

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$2.09

Record

50%

26140-25802 (51942)

JabJabichCTR

Thousand

Invested

$2,570.03

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$965.13

Record

61%

202-129 (331)

Research grade

NeutralSINNERS Legacy at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

SINNERS Legacy

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on SINNERS Legacy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on SINNERS Legacy) and the top 1000 (7 on Thousand) disagree here.

sharpThousand 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrSINNERS Legacy 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedSINNERS Legacy 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Thousand 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SINNERS Legacy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.