Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold RED Canids Academy, while the market favors Los Niños (68%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs Los Niños (BO3) - CCT South America Challengers #4 Playoffs

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold RED Canids Academy (75%) · RED Canids Academy at 33¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16

RED Canids Academy33¢Los Niños67¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

RED Canids Academy

Consensus Traders

RED Canids Academy 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$143.57

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 32.5¢

-41% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralRED Canids Academy at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

RED Canids Academy

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Los Niños 68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

RED Canids Academy33%

Los Niños68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

RED Canids Academy9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,628

Combined PnL-$8.11

Los Niños3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,889

Combined PnL+$151.67

RED Canids Academy — 75%Los Niños — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 40.9¢	$625.25	$629.63	+$4.38	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 40.9¢	$565.78	$477.37	-$88.41
└ Los Niños leg	Los Niñosavg 25.6¢	$59.47	$152.26	+$92.8
alpheclabs2CTR	RED Canids Academyavg 48.8¢	$612.78	$602.82	-$9.96	45% 378-471 (849)
KA Kaczka	Los Niñosavg 49.5¢	$452	$588.62	+$136.62	12% 29-216 (245)
JA JabJabich	Los Niñosavg 61.3¢	$514.17	$532.48	+$18.32	40% 62-92 (154)
GA GaditimaCTR	RED Canids Academyavg 69¢	$345	$372.5	+$27.5	49% 408-422 (830)
31 319113331313111CTR	RED Canids Academyavg 62¢	$297.6	$304.8	+$7.2	54% 216-181 (397)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Los Niñosavg 63.3¢	$3.3K	$277.36	-$14.14	61% 215-135 (350)
└ Los Niños leg	Los Niñosavg 63.3¢	$153.42	$156.31	-$163.03
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 40.5¢	$138.22	$121.04	+$148.89
CI cigarettesARB<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 45.8¢	$277.97	$148.95	-$66.95	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 45.8¢	$181.82	$113.2	-$66.39
└ Los Niños leg	Los Niñosavg 70¢	$35	$35.75	-$0.56
38 38791873984189<$100	Los Niñosavg 53.3¢	$93.32	$90.06	-$3.26	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
LR lryyyCTR	RED Canids Academyavg 40.6¢	$103.48	$66.63	-$36.85	45% 1018-1224 (2242)
relativesignificanceCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 71¢	$61.42	$64.44	+$3.03	56% 177-139 (316)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 43.5¢	$22.5	$22.49	-$0.01	42% 762-1074 (1836)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 72¢	$9.06	$9.37	+$0.31	62% 287-176 (463)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 67¢	$3.35	$3.73	+$0.38	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 67¢	$2.61	$2.9	+$0.29	48% 4819-5125 (9944)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$625.25

Value

$629.63

PnL

+$4.38

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

Both legs:

RED Canids Academy$565.7840.9¢-$88.41

Los Niños$59.4725.6¢+$92.8

alpheclabs2CTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$612.78

Value

$602.82

PnL

-$9.96

Record

45%

378-471 (849)

Kaczka

Los Niños

Invested

$452

Value

$588.62

PnL

+$136.62

Record

12%

29-216 (245)

JabJabich

Los Niños

Invested

$514.17

Value

$532.48

PnL

+$18.32

Record

40%

62-92 (154)

GaditimaCTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$345

Value

$372.5

PnL

+$27.5

Record

49%

408-422 (830)

319113331313111CTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$297.6

Value

$304.8

PnL

+$7.2

Record

54%

216-181 (397)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Los Niños

Invested

$3,327.97

Value

$277.36

PnL

-$14.14

Record

61%

215-135 (350)

Both legs:

Los Niños$153.4263.3¢-$163.03

RED Canids Academy$138.2240.5¢+$148.89

cigarettesARB<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$277.97

Value

$148.95

PnL

-$66.95

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

Both legs:

RED Canids Academy$181.8245.8¢-$66.39

Los Niños$3570¢-$0.56

38791873984189<$100

Los Niños

Invested

$93.32

Value

$90.06

PnL

-$3.26

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

lryyyCTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$103.48

Value

$66.63

PnL

-$36.85

Record

45%

1018-1224 (2242)

relativesignificanceCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$61.42

Value

$64.44

PnL

+$3.03

Record

56%

177-139 (316)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

42%

762-1074 (1836)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$9.06

Value

$9.37

PnL

+$0.31

Record

62%

287-176 (463)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.38

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.29

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Research grade

NeutralRED Canids Academy at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

RED Canids Academy

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Los Niños 68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that RED Canids Academy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.