Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold PARIVISION, while the market favors 100 Thieves (56%). 13 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

13 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (65%) · PARIVISION at 45¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 16

PARIVISION45¢100 Thieves55¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 65%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.9K

Combined PnL

-$267.9

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 44.5¢

-21% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

13 of 20 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors 100 Thieves 56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION45%

100 Thieves56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION13 traders

Total Value$18.5K

Total Shares37,030

Combined PnL$-2.5K

100 Thieves7 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares29,330

Combined PnL+$2.2K

PARIVISION — 65%100 Thieves — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPARIVISION 53% · 17

Aligned

Top 1000PARIVISION 59% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
lllllllllooooCTR	PARIVISIONavg 57.4¢	$10.0K	$8.7K	$-1.3K	16% 19-101 (120)
0X 0xedrtgfBdecfrhyeerd	100 Thievesavg 36.6¢	$4.0K	$5.5K	+$1.5K	4% 2-46 (48)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	100 Thievesavg 46.7¢	$5.4K	$5.0K	-$16.93	56% 4181-3271 (7452)
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 46.7¢	$3.0K	$3.7K	+$696.83
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 61¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$713.77
Satanishippie	100 Thievesavg 46¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$215.22	35% 8-15 (23)
one8tyfive	100 Thievesavg 45¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$322.4	58% 18-13 (31)
shekelmeisterCTR	PARIVISIONavg 55¢	$3.3K	$3.0K	-$297.17	47% 429-476 (905)
PN pnhctARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 42¢	$5.3K	$2.6K	+$764.09	55% 26-21 (47)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 42¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	-$113.41
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 35.9¢	$538.72	$862	+$877.5
Stickman22CTR	PARIVISIONavg 54¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$200	46% 16-19 (35)
BananaFarmerCTR	PARIVISIONavg 55¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$200	38% 15-25 (40)
NO nobody2somebody	100 Thievesavg 46.6¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$73.03	48% 12-13 (25)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR	PARIVISIONavg 56¢	$1.1K	$999.99	-$120	53% 94-82 (176)
VV VVVSSPCTR	PARIVISIONavg 69¢	$971.22	$704.19	-$267.03	36% 44-78 (122)
lma0o0o0o	100 Thievesavg 44¢	$616.88	$701	+$84.12	52% 54-49 (103)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 58.8¢	$953.52	$612.7	-$39.33	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 58.8¢	$469.05	$398.56	-$52.32
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 40.4¢	$173.14	$214.14	+$12.99
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 48.3¢	$2.4K	$545.11	-$35.12	23% 73-238 (311)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 48.3¢	$403.1	$354.88	-$255.97
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 52.1¢	$172.43	$190.23	+$220.85
TH thatsabing0CTR	PARIVISIONavg 55¢	$216.64	$196.95	-$19.69	63% 280-166 (446)
VI vibing123	100 Thievesavg 44¢	$157.3	$178.75	+$21.45	61% 1209-766 (1975)
tankfest2027CTR	PARIVISIONavg 53¢	$161.48	$152.34	-$9.14	35% 7-13 (20)
CI cigarettesCTR	PARIVISIONavg 67¢	$201	$150	-$51	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
rafaleaooCTR<$100	PARIVISIONavg 54¢	$87.21	$80.75	-$6.46	6% 43-662 (705)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 41¢	$61.98	$77.52	+$15.53	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 39.2¢	$30.73	$45.12	+$14.39
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 41¢	$31.25	$32.39	+$1.14
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	PARIVISIONavg 50.7¢	$50.75	$50	-$0.75	43% 867-1151 (2018)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	PARIVISIONavg 64¢	$81.15	$30	-$6.15	46% 486-574 (1060)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	PARIVISIONavg 52¢	$3.04	$2.92	-$0.12	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
VP VPenguin<$100	100 Thievesavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.5	+$0.3	35% 18-34 (52)

lllllllllooooCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$9,952.02

Value

$8.7K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

16%

19-101 (120)

0xedrtgfBdecfrhyeerd

100 Thieves

Invested

$4,000

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

2-46 (48)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$5,360.15

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$16.93

Record

56%

4181-3271 (7452)

Both legs:

100 Thieves$3,021.4846.7¢+$696.83

PARIVISION$1,863.2461¢-$713.77

Satanishippie

100 Thieves

Invested

$3,300

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$215.22

Record

35%

8-15 (23)

one8tyfive

100 Thieves

Invested

$2,901.6

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$322.4

Record

58%

18-13 (31)

shekelmeisterCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,268.88

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$297.17

Record

47%

429-476 (905)

pnhctARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$5,332.58

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$764.09

Record

55%

26-21 (47)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$1,730.2142¢-$113.41

100 Thieves$538.7235.9¢+$877.5

Stickman22CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,700

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$200

Record

46%

16-19 (35)

BananaFarmerCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,199.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$200

Record

38%

15-25 (40)

nobody2somebody

100 Thieves

Invested

$1,400

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$73.03

Record

48%

12-13 (25)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,119.99

Value

$999.99

PnL

-$120

Record

53%

94-82 (176)

VVVSSPCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$971.22

Value

$704.19

PnL

-$267.03

Record

36%

44-78 (122)

lma0o0o0o

100 Thieves

Invested

$616.88

Value

$701

PnL

+$84.12

Record

52%

54-49 (103)

NotJumpARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$953.52

Value

$612.7

PnL

-$39.33

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$469.0558.8¢-$52.32

100 Thieves$173.1440.4¢+$12.99

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,390.94

Value

$545.11

PnL

-$35.12

Record

23%

73-238 (311)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$403.148.3¢-$255.97

100 Thieves$172.4352.1¢+$220.85

thatsabing0CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$216.64

Value

$196.95

PnL

-$19.69

Record

63%

280-166 (446)

vibing123

100 Thieves

Invested

$157.3

Value

$178.75

PnL

+$21.45

Record

61%

1209-766 (1975)

tankfest2027CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$161.48

Value

$152.34

PnL

-$9.14

Record

35%

7-13 (20)

cigarettesCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$201

Value

$150

PnL

-$51

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

rafaleaooCTR<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$87.21

Value

$80.75

PnL

-$6.46

Record

43-662 (705)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$61.98

Value

$77.52

PnL

+$15.53

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Both legs:

100 Thieves$30.7339.2¢+$14.39

PARIVISION$31.2541¢+$1.14

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$50.75

Value

$50

PnL

-$0.75

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$81.15

Value

$30

PnL

-$6.15

Record

46%

486-574 (1060)

suntoriCTR<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$3.04

Value

$2.92

PnL

-$0.12

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

VPenguin<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

35%

18-34 (52)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

13 of 20 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors 100 Thieves 56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPARIVISION 53% · 17

Aligned

Top 1000PARIVISION 59% · 22

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.