Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold G2, while the market favors MOUZ (70%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 - Map 2 Winner
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (57%) · G2 at 31¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
G2
7
G2 57%
$1.3K
$29.57
29.2¢ → 30.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralG2 at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors MOUZ 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on G2. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | G2avg 30.8¢ | $491.39 | $440.25 | -$8.37 | 52% 440-413 (853) |
AS asuka7 | MOUZavg 69¢ | $354.8 | $357.38 | +$2.57 | 2% 7-310 (317) |
GT gt7238CTR | G2avg 27¢ | $280.53 | $311.7 | +$31.17 | 3% 16-448 (464) |
CR crmannetje<$100 | MOUZavg 70¢ | $70 | $69.5 | -$0.5 | — 1-18 (19) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | MOUZavg 68¢ | $63.75 | $65.63 | +$1.88 | 56% 3836-3005 (6841) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | G2avg 27.5¢ | $23.43 | $12.8 | +$2.27 | 54% 539-462 (1001) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | G2avg 27¢ | $5 | $5.55 | +$0.56 | 41% 3108-4463 (7571) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$491.39
Value
$440.25
PnL
-$8.37
Record
52%
440-413 (853)
Invested
$354.8
Value
$357.38
PnL
+$2.57
Record
2%
7-310 (317)
Invested
$280.53
Value
$311.7
PnL
+$31.17
Record
3%
16-448 (464)
Invested
$70
Value
$69.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
—
1-18 (19)
Invested
$63.75
Value
$65.63
PnL
+$1.88
Record
56%
3836-3005 (6841)
Invested
$23.43
Value
$12.8
PnL
+$2.27
Record
54%
539-462 (1001)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.55
PnL
+$0.56
Record
41%
3108-4463 (7571)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.