Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (25%) · MOUZ at 73¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 7

MOUZ73¢BetBoom Team27¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.3K

Combined PnL

$126.82

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 72.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ73%

BetBoom Team28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ2 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares19,326

Combined PnL-$71.62

BetBoom Team6 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares22,051

Combined PnL+$198.44

MOUZ — 25%BetBoom Team — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBetBoom Team 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBetBoom Team 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000BetBoom Team 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SK skadii	MOUZavg 74¢	$10.6K	$10.4K	-$71.62	48% 506-541 (1047)
RA Rayaya	MOUZavg 72¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$0	61% 1222-797 (2019)
CE ce1lvc9ew66CTR	BetBoom Teamavg 27¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	+$52.56	83% 165-33 (198)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 27¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$101.56	55% 244-203 (447)
HL HLEbritniCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 28.1¢	$842.11	$855	+$12.89	49% 22-23 (45)
relativesignificanceCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 27¢	$641.8	$677.26	+$35.46	58% 154-110 (264)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	MOUZavg 72.4¢	$132.22	$132.91	+$0.69	58% 21564-15645 (37209)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 72.4¢	$83.66	$83.82	+$0.15
└ BetBoom Team leg	BetBoom Teamavg 27.2¢	$48.56	$49.09	+$0.54
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	BetBoom Teamavg 29¢	$110.81	$106.96	-$3.85	50% 21456-21716 (43172)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	BetBoom Teamavg 29¢	$10.2	$9.85	-$0.18	48% 1655-1767 (3422)

skadii

MOUZ

Invested

$10,599.3

Value

$10.4K

PnL

-$71.62

Record

48%

506-541 (1047)

Rayaya

MOUZ

Invested

$3,599.95

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

1222-797 (2019)

ce1lvc9ew66CTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$2,700

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$52.56

Record

83%

165-33 (198)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$1,827.83

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$101.56

Record

55%

244-203 (447)

HLEbritniCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$842.11

Value

$855

PnL

+$12.89

Record

49%

22-23 (45)

relativesignificanceCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$641.8

Value

$677.26

PnL

+$35.46

Record

58%

154-110 (264)

ghorrockARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$132.22

Value

$132.91

PnL

+$0.69

Record

58%

21564-15645 (37209)

Both legs:

MOUZ$83.6672.4¢+$0.15

BetBoom Team$48.5627.2¢+$0.54

omnibus-076daaCTR

BetBoom Team

Invested

$110.81

Value

$106.96

PnL

-$3.85

Record

50%

21456-21716 (43172)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

BetBoom Team

Invested

$10.2

Value

$9.85

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

1655-1767 (3422)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBetBoom Team 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBetBoom Team 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000BetBoom Team 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.