Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (53%) · Natus Vincere at 70¢ · $120K held · ends Nov 7

TheMongolz31¢Natus Vincere69¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Natus Vincere

Consensus Traders

Natus Vincere 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$120.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 69.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

10 of 19 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

TheMongolz31%

Natus Vincere70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Natus Vincere10 traders

Total Value$91.8K

Total Shares132,675

Combined PnL+$43.93

TheMongolz9 traders

Total Value$28.3K

Total Shares92,796

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Natus Vincere — 53%TheMongolz — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTheMongolz 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNatus Vincere 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Natus Vincere 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KJ kjhgkltivtvriur	Natus Vincereavg 71¢	$25.4K	$24.8K	-$553.57	— 5-1 (6)
LL lllllllIlll	Natus Vincereavg 68¢	$24.1K	$24.3K	+$177.56	54% 319-276 (595)
KateBollinger	Natus Vincereavg 69¢	$21.3K	$21.1K	+$146.36	68% 1822-858 (2680)
PE PerpsKingCTR	TheMongolzavg 32.7¢	$22.1K	$20.6K	$-1.5K	— 2-0 (2)
relativesignificance	Natus Vincereavg 68.3¢	$10.7K	$10.9K	+$183.51	58% 154-110 (264)
VI vibing123	Natus Vincereavg 67.8¢	$8.9K	$6.1K	+$61.67	52% 1656-1550 (3206)
QI qiu3CTR	TheMongolzavg 31¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$96.77	61% 51-33 (84)
LooksMaxing101	Natus Vincereavg 69¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$20	51% 883-846 (1729)
yabanci	Natus Vincereavg 68¢	$869.04	$875.43	+$6.39	51% 94-89 (183)
VE VetchCTR	TheMongolzavg 31¢	$759.94	$772.2	+$12.26	61% 382-249 (631)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	TheMongolzavg 31¢	$574.41	$583.68	+$9.26	64% 2022-1128 (3150)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Natus Vincereavg 69¢	$414	$417	+$3	51% 2006-1938 (3944)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	TheMongolzavg 30¢	$349	$354.82	+$5.82	50% 7658-7804 (15462)
GH ghorrock	Natus Vincereavg 68.5¢	$256.28	$260.07	+$3.79	58% 21564-15645 (37209)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 68.2¢	$378.12	$230.03	+$5.48	48% 62058-66943 (129001)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 68.2¢	$147.31	$150.12	+$3.92
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 30.4¢	$79.54	$79.91	+$1.56
KA Kaczka	Natus Vincereavg 70.1¢	$213.25	$208.48	-$4.78	50% 488-482 (970)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	TheMongolzavg 33.1¢	$122.96	$115.2	-$7.76	50% 21456-21716 (43172)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 33.1¢	$10.43	$9.77	-$0.16	51% 1749-1699 (3448)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 30¢	$9.47	$9.63	+$0.16	49% 14922-15785 (30707)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 31¢	$2.48	$2.44	-$0.04	54% 10168-8540 (18708)

kjhgkltivtvriur

Natus Vincere

Invested

$25,375

Value

$24.8K

PnL

-$553.57

Record

—

5-1 (6)

lllllllIlll

Natus Vincere

Invested

$24,148.02

Value

$24.3K

PnL

+$177.56

Record

54%

319-276 (595)

KateBollinger

Natus Vincere

Invested

$21,343.7

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$146.36

Record

68%

1822-858 (2680)

PerpsKingCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$22,091.51

Value

$20.6K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

—

2-0 (2)

relativesignificance

Natus Vincere

Invested

$10,671.84

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$183.51

Record

58%

154-110 (264)

vibing123

Natus Vincere

Invested

$8,864.1

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$61.67

Record

52%

1656-1550 (3206)

qiu3CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$6,000

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$96.77

Record

61%

51-33 (84)

LooksMaxing101

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,759.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$20

Record

51%

883-846 (1729)

yabanci

Natus Vincere

Invested

$869.04

Value

$875.43

PnL

+$6.39

Record

51%

94-89 (183)

VetchCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$759.94

Value

$772.2

PnL

+$12.26

Record

61%

382-249 (631)

darkumbreon88CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$574.41

Value

$583.68

PnL

+$9.26

Record

64%

2022-1128 (3150)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Natus Vincere

Invested

$414

Value

$417

PnL

+$3

Record

51%

2006-1938 (3944)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$349

Value

$354.82

PnL

+$5.82

Record

50%

7658-7804 (15462)

ghorrock

Natus Vincere

Invested

$256.28

Value

$260.07

PnL

+$3.79

Record

58%

21564-15645 (37209)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$378.12

Value

$230.03

PnL

+$5.48

Record

48%

62058-66943 (129001)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$147.3168.2¢+$3.92

TheMongolz$79.5430.4¢+$1.56

Kaczka

Natus Vincere

Invested

$213.25

Value

$208.48

PnL

-$4.78

Record

50%

488-482 (970)

omnibus-076daaCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$122.96

Value

$115.2

PnL

-$7.76

Record

50%

21456-21716 (43172)

LimousinCTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$10.43

Value

$9.77

PnL

-$0.16

Record

51%

1749-1699 (3448)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$9.47

Value

$9.63

PnL

+$0.16

Record

49%

14922-15785 (30707)

Pan9XCTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$2.48

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$0.04

Record

54%

10168-8540 (18708)

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

10 of 19 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTheMongolz 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNatus Vincere 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Natus Vincere 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Natus Vincere wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.