Counter-Strike: magic vs fnatic (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold fnatic (59%) · fnatic at 52¢ · $92K held · ends Nov 16

magic49¢fnatic51¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

fnatic

Consensus Traders

fnatic 59%

Total Value

$91.8K

Combined PnL

-$544.59

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

magic49%

fnatic52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

magic7 traders

Total Value$45.5K

Total Shares94,399

Combined PnL-$458.54

fnatic10 traders

Total Value$46.3K

Total Shares90,638

Combined PnL-$86.05

magic — 41%fnatic — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	magicavg 48.5¢	$29.1K	$28.5K	-$610.88	55% 177-144 (321)
shekelmeisterCTR	magicavg 49¢	$14.7K	$14.8K	+$150	47% 428-476 (904)
LL lllllllIlll	fnaticavg 51¢	$12.5K	$12.6K	+$122.68	5% 12-210 (222)
VI vibing123	fnaticavg 50.6¢	$11.3K	$11.3K	-$14.54	61% 1202-764 (1966)
WI Wiretransferxyz	fnaticavg 50¢	$7.5K	$7.5K	+$74.58	56% 395-312 (707)
HU humbleboy	fnaticavg 52¢	$4.4K	$4.3K	-$127.65	3% 4-126 (130)
rafaleaoo	fnaticavg 53¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$30	6% 42-661 (703)
RA Rayaya	fnaticavg 55¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$150	56% 19-15 (34)
FU Fund01	fnaticavg 51¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$20	— 9-10 (19)
T8 t89e4ygf6	fnaticavg 51¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$20	2% 3-151 (154)
NO nobody2somebodyCTR	magicavg 48¢	$668.64	$675.61	+$6.97	50% 11-11 (22)
latvian.demonCTR	magicavg 50¢	$600	$582	-$18	13% 71-467 (538)
lma0o0o0oCTR	magicavg 47¢	$451.66	$456.47	+$4.8	51% 50-48 (98)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	fnaticavg 52¢	$416	$412	-$4	30% 486-1131 (1617)
fyrskenCTR	magicavg 46¢	$400	$408.7	+$8.7	49% 67-71 (138)
MA manoamano	fnaticavg 51¢	$293.1	$295.97	+$2.87	55% 44-36 (80)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	magicavg 49¢	$11.42	$11.3	-$0.12	46% 3240-3776 (7016)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

magic

Invested

$29,088.44

Value

$28.5K

PnL

-$610.88

Record

55%

177-144 (321)

shekelmeisterCTR

magic

Invested

$14,699.94

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$150

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

lllllllIlll

fnatic

Invested

$12,513.63

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$122.68

Record

12-210 (222)

vibing123

fnatic

Invested

$11,271.51

Value

$11.3K

PnL

-$14.54

Record

61%

1202-764 (1966)

Wiretransferxyz

fnatic

Invested

$7,458.04

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$74.58

Record

56%

395-312 (707)

humbleboy

fnatic

Invested

$4,425.03

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$127.65

Record

4-126 (130)

rafaleaoo

fnatic

Invested

$3,179.98

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$30

Record

42-661 (703)

Rayaya

fnatic

Invested

$2,750

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$150

Record

56%

19-15 (34)

Fund01

fnatic

Invested

$2,045.24

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$20

Record

—

9-10 (19)

t89e4ygf6

fnatic

Invested

$2,040

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$20

Record

3-151 (154)

nobody2somebodyCTR

magic

Invested

$668.64

Value

$675.61

PnL

+$6.97

Record

50%

11-11 (22)

latvian.demonCTR

magic

Invested

$600

Value

$582

PnL

-$18

Record

13%

71-467 (538)

lma0o0o0oCTR

magic

Invested

$451.66

Value

$456.47

PnL

+$4.8

Record

51%

50-48 (98)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

fnatic

Invested

$416

Value

$412

PnL

-$4

Record

30%

486-1131 (1617)

fyrskenCTR

magic

Invested

$400

Value

$408.7

PnL

+$8.7

Record

49%

67-71 (138)

manoamano

fnatic

Invested

$293.1

Value

$295.97

PnL

+$2.87

Record

55%

44-36 (80)

suntoriCTR<$100

magic

Invested

$11.42

Value

$11.3

PnL

-$0.12

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

Research grade

Neutralfnatic at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

fnatic

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that fnatic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.