Counter-Strike: Lunacy Team vs maybe - Map 2 Winner

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Lunacy Team (60%) · Lunacy Team at 77¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 7

Lunacy Team77¢maybe23¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lunacy Team

Consensus Traders

Lunacy Team 60%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$96.86

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 77¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLunacy Team at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lunacy Team

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lunacy Team77%

maybe23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lunacy Team6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,491

Combined PnL+$278.87

maybe4 traders

Total Value$306.48

Total Shares1,454

Combined PnL-$182.01

Lunacy Team — 60%maybe — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabich	Lunacy Teamavg 69.6¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$245.02	62% 213-132 (345)
31 319113331313111	Lunacy Teamavg 54.4¢	$5.8K	$369.15	+$69.04	59% 414-284 (698)
0X 0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250	Lunacy Teamavg 98.7¢	$457.88	$357.2	-$100.69	97% 3845-139 (3984)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	maybeavg 32.9¢	$432.15	$275.76	-$156.38	57% 19424-14373 (33797)
PA panpidaras1	Lunacy Teamavg 44.2¢	$79.95	$132.43	+$56.78	48% 292-320 (612)
LR lryyy<$100	Lunacy Teamavg 60.5¢	$26.62	$33.88	+$7.26	47% 9568-10685 (20253)
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100	Lunacy Teamavg 72.2¢	$44.87	$23.7	+$1.45	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	maybeavg 25¢	$17.25	$14.49	-$2.76	47% 1363-1539 (2902)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	maybeavg 60.6¢	$34.44	$13.08	-$21.36	47% 4175-4797 (8972)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	maybeavg 31.1¢	$4.66	$3.15	-$1.51	55% 1426-1175 (2601)

JabJabich

Lunacy Team

Invested

$2,301.57

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$245.02

Record

62%

213-132 (345)

319113331313111

Lunacy Team

Invested

$5,794.66

Value

$369.15

PnL

+$69.04

Record

59%

414-284 (698)

0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250

Lunacy Team

Invested

$457.88

Value

$357.2

PnL

-$100.69

Record

97%

3845-139 (3984)

BillBenter2026CTR

maybe

Invested

$432.15

Value

$275.76

PnL

-$156.38

Record

57%

19424-14373 (33797)

panpidaras1

Lunacy Team

Invested

$79.95

Value

$132.43

PnL

+$56.78

Record

48%

292-320 (612)

lryyy<$100

Lunacy Team

Invested

$26.62

Value

$33.88

PnL

+$7.26

Record

47%

9568-10685 (20253)

ferrariChampions2026<$100

Lunacy Team

Invested

$44.87

Value

$23.7

PnL

+$1.45

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

maybe

Invested

$17.25

Value

$14.49

PnL

-$2.76

Record

47%

1363-1539 (2902)

shiifooCTR<$100

maybe

Invested

$34.44

Value

$13.08

PnL

-$21.36

Record

47%

4175-4797 (8972)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

maybe

Invested

$4.66

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$1.51

Record

55%

1426-1175 (2601)

Research grade

NeutralLunacy Team at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lunacy Team

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lunacy Team wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.