Counter-Strike: Lunacy Team vs maybe - Map 2 Winner

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Lunacy Team (31%) · Lunacy Team at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 7

Lunacy Team>99¢maybe<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lunacy Team

Consensus Traders

Lunacy Team 31%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$505.42

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 100¢

+34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLunacy Team at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lunacy Team

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lunacy Team100%

maybe0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lunacy Team4 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,837

Combined PnL+$972.69

maybe9 traders

Total Value$971.11

Total Shares5,916

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Lunacy Team — 31%maybe — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabich	Lunacy Teamavg 69.6¢	$2.3K	$3.3K	+$1.0K	61% 205-132 (337)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Lunacy Teamavg 99.9¢	$585.47	$585.77	+$0.29	35% 19622-37185 (56807)
31 319113331313111	Lunacy Teamavg 54.4¢	$5.8K	$369.15	+$69.04	59% 411-283 (694)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	maybeavg 41.6¢	$516.95	$365.16	-$129.16	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
0X 0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250	Lunacy Teamavg 98.7¢	$457.88	$357.2	-$100.69	97% 3800-137 (3937)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	maybeavg 43.3¢	$1.2K	$261.53	-$979.3	57% 19424-14373 (33797)
alpheclabs2CTR	maybeavg 23.1¢	$49.71	$148.02	+$98.3	47% 1363-1539 (2902)
LR lryyyCTR	maybeavg 49.3¢	$130.72	$124.99	-$5.73	47% 9568-10685 (20253)
38 38791873984189CTR	maybeavg 66.9¢	$139.22	$67.07	-$72.15	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	maybeavg 31.1¢	$4.66	$3.15	-$1.51	55% 1426-1175 (2601)
PA panpidaras1CTR	maybeavg 42¢	$1.2K	$0.94	-$132.01	48% 292-320 (612)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	maybeavg 49.7¢	$222.36	$0.22	-$222.13	54% 3510-3038 (6548)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	maybeavg 60.6¢	$34.44	$0.03	-$34.41	47% 4121-4665 (8786)

JabJabich

Lunacy Team

Invested

$2,301.57

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

61%

205-132 (337)

xtxpleasecallme

Lunacy Team

Invested

$585.47

Value

$585.77

PnL

+$0.29

Record

35%

19622-37185 (56807)

319113331313111

Lunacy Team

Invested

$5,794.66

Value

$369.15

PnL

+$69.04

Record

59%

411-283 (694)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

maybe

Invested

$516.95

Value

$365.16

PnL

-$129.16

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250

Lunacy Team

Invested

$457.88

Value

$357.2

PnL

-$100.69

Record

97%

3800-137 (3937)

BillBenter2026CTR

maybe

Invested

$1,240.84

Value

$261.53

PnL

-$979.3

Record

57%

19424-14373 (33797)

alpheclabs2CTR

maybe

Invested

$49.71

Value

$148.02

PnL

+$98.3

Record

47%

1363-1539 (2902)

lryyyCTR

maybe

Invested

$130.72

Value

$124.99

PnL

-$5.73

Record

47%

9568-10685 (20253)

38791873984189CTR

maybe

Invested

$139.22

Value

$67.07

PnL

-$72.15

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

maybe

Invested

$4.66

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$1.51

Record

55%

1426-1175 (2601)

panpidaras1CTR

maybe

Invested

$1,242.52

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$132.01

Record

48%

292-320 (612)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

maybe

Invested

$222.36

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$222.13

Record

54%

3510-3038 (6548)

shiifooCTR<$100

maybe

Invested

$34.44

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$34.41

Record

47%

4121-4665 (8786)

Research grade

NeutralLunacy Team at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Lunacy Team

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lunacy Team wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.