Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs The Last Resort - Map 1 Winner

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Leo Team (40%) · Leo Team at 52¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

Leo Team52¢The Last Resort48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Leo Team

Consensus Traders

Leo Team 40%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$215.28

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 51.5¢

-16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLeo Team at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Leo Team

4 of 10 top traders (40%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Leo Team52%

The Last Resort49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Leo Team4 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,747

Combined PnL-$260.34

The Last Resort6 traders

Total Value$677.76

Total Shares1,463

Combined PnL+$45.06

Leo Team — 40%The Last Resort — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Leo Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpThe Last Resort 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrThe Last Resort 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000The Last Resort 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabich	Leo Teamavg 60.5¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$44.24	35% 45-83 (128)
lma0o0o0o	Leo Teamavg 62¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$10.89	52% 50-46 (96)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Leo Teamavg 54.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$43.83	61% 196-125 (321)
└ The Last Resort leg	The Last Resortavg 43.1¢	$609.87	$686.78	+$76.91
└ Leo Team leg	Leo Teamavg 54.4¢	$629.22	$596.15	-$33.08
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Leo Teamavg 64.9¢	$707.08	$414.05	-$293.03	55% 174-144 (318)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	Leo Teamavg 73.9¢	$2.3K	$364.81	+$0.75	55% 202-164 (366)
└ Leo Team leg	Leo Teamavg 73.9¢	$426.46	$288.35	-$90.75
└ The Last Resort leg	The Last Resortavg 43.8¢	$67.03	$76.46	+$91.5
CR crabfavorARB<$100	The Last Resortavg 39.7¢	$463.26	$324.64	-$138.62	57% 115-86 (201)
└ The Last Resort leg	The Last Resortavg 39.7¢	$393.13	$183.4	-$209.73
└ Leo Team leg	Leo Teamavg 40.5¢	$70.13	$141.25	+$71.11
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Leo Teamavg 50¢	$262.5	$241.5	-$21	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
└ The Last Resort leg	The Last Resortavg 50¢	$131.25	$141.75	+$10.5
└ Leo Team leg	Leo Teamavg 50¢	$131.25	$99.75	-$31.5
TO topdogbigboiCTR	The Last Resortavg 33.3¢	$152.15	$223.54	+$71.38	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	The Last Resortavg 57¢	$247.46	$167.14	-$80.32	46% 621-730 (1351)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	The Last Resortavg 43¢	$141.13	$126.41	-$14.72	41% 718-1033 (1751)
Future-Tarot-TraderARB<$100	Leo Teamavg 77.7¢	$219.88	$75.4	-$18.52	55% 162-133 (295)
└ The Last Resort leg	The Last Resortavg 35.3¢	$32.79	$46.43	+$11.43
└ Leo Team leg	Leo Teamavg 77.7¢	$45.03	$28.98	-$29.94
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 24.8¢	$57.95	$73.04	+$37.09	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
poshposhCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 34.8¢	$46	$66.03	+$20.02	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 25¢	$10	$21.6	+$11.6	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
LR lryyy<$100	Leo Teamavg 56¢	$6.16	$5.5	-$0.66	45% 963-1156 (2119)

JabJabich

Leo Team

Invested

$2,570.29

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$44.24

Record

35%

45-83 (128)

lma0o0o0o

Leo Team

Invested

$1,483.78

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$10.89

Record

52%

50-46 (96)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$1,239.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$43.83

Record

61%

196-125 (321)

Both legs:

The Last Resort$609.8743.1¢+$76.91

Leo Team$629.2254.4¢-$33.08

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Leo Team

Invested

$707.08

Value

$414.05

PnL

-$293.03

Record

55%

174-144 (318)

319113331313111ARB<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$2,320.69

Value

$364.81

PnL

+$0.75

Record

55%

202-164 (366)

Both legs:

Leo Team$426.4673.9¢-$90.75

The Last Resort$67.0343.8¢+$91.5

crabfavorARB<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$463.26

Value

$324.64

PnL

-$138.62

Record

57%

115-86 (201)

Both legs:

The Last Resort$393.1339.7¢-$209.73

Leo Team$70.1340.5¢+$71.11

NotJumpARB<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$262.5

Value

$241.5

PnL

-$21

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

Both legs:

The Last Resort$131.2550¢+$10.5

Leo Team$131.2550¢-$31.5

topdogbigboiCTR

The Last Resort

Invested

$152.15

Value

$223.54

PnL

+$71.38

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

omnibus-076daaCTR

The Last Resort

Invested

$247.46

Value

$167.14

PnL

-$80.32

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

The Last Resort

Invested

$141.13

Value

$126.41

PnL

-$14.72

Record

41%

718-1033 (1751)

Future-Tarot-TraderARB<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$219.88

Value

$75.4

PnL

-$18.52

Record

55%

162-133 (295)

Both legs:

The Last Resort$32.7935.3¢+$11.43

Leo Team$45.0377.7¢-$29.94

38791873984189CTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$57.95

Value

$73.04

PnL

+$37.09

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

poshposhCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$46

Value

$66.03

PnL

+$20.02

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$10

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$11.6

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

lryyy<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$6.16

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.66

Record

45%

963-1156 (2119)

Research grade

NeutralLeo Team at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Leo Team

4 of 10 top traders (40%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Leo Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpThe Last Resort 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrThe Last Resort 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000The Last Resort 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Leo Team wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.