Counter-Strike: ex-INOX Division vs Alliance (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #12 Playoffs

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Alliance (30%) · Alliance at 61¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 14

ex-INOX Division40¢Alliance60¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alliance

Consensus Traders

Alliance 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.2K

Combined PnL

$7.25

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 60.5¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlliance at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alliance

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

ex-INOX Division40%

Alliance61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alliance3 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares20,008

Combined PnL-$899.34

ex-INOX Division7 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares22,177

Combined PnL+$906.59

Alliance — 30%ex-INOX Division — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	Allianceavg 65¢	$13.0K	$12.1K	-$900	2% 5-206 (211)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	ex-INOX Divisionavg 35¢	$6.9K	$7.7K	+$877.3	55% 162-133 (295)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	ex-INOX Divisionavg 36.1¢	$365.66	$390.31	+$24.65	37% 996-1673 (2669)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	ex-INOX Divisionavg 37.1¢	$473.97	$350.16	-$10.29	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
└ ex-INOX Division leg	ex-INOX Divisionavg 37.1¢	$244.36	$230.56	-$10.82
└ Alliance leg	Allianceavg 64.7¢	$119.07	$119.6	+$0.53
fyrskenCTR	ex-INOX Divisionavg 39¢	$312	$316	+$4	52% 55-51 (106)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	ex-INOX Divisionavg 39¢	$135.62	$137.35	+$1.74	25% 337-1016 (1353)
poshposhCTR	ex-INOX Divisionavg 35¢	$102.49	$102.49	+$0	48% 1079-1157 (2236)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	ex-INOX Divisionavg 35¢	$26.36	$26.35	-$0	53% 7022-6168 (13190)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	ex-INOX Divisionavg 36.9¢	$26.21	$21.35	-$1.09	50% 1579-1603 (3182)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Allianceavg 57¢	$2.85	$3.25	+$0.4	48% 2045-2201 (4246)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Allianceavg 57¢	$1.82	$2.08	+$0.26	49% 3769-3940 (7709)

lllllllIlll

Alliance

Invested

$13,000

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$900

Record

5-206 (211)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$6,859.49

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$877.3

Record

55%

162-133 (295)

topdogbigboiCTR

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$365.66

Value

$390.31

PnL

+$24.65

Record

37%

996-1673 (2669)

38791873984189ARB<$100

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$473.97

Value

$350.16

PnL

-$10.29

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

Both legs:

ex-INOX Division$244.3637.1¢-$10.82

Alliance$119.0764.7¢+$0.53

fyrskenCTR

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$312

Value

$316

PnL

+$4

Record

52%

55-51 (106)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$135.62

Value

$137.35

PnL

+$1.74

Record

25%

337-1016 (1353)

poshposhCTR

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$102.49

Value

$102.49

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1079-1157 (2236)

cigarettesCTR<$100

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$26.36

Value

$26.35

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

7022-6168 (13190)

Pan9XCTR<$100

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$26.21

Value

$21.35

PnL

-$1.09

Record

50%

1579-1603 (3182)

ferdinand2<$100

Alliance

Invested

$2.85

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.4

Record

48%

2045-2201 (4246)

Flaznorp<$100

Alliance

Invested

$1.82

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0.26

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

Research grade

NeutralAlliance at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alliance

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alliance wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.