Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs Ryvex (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Play-In

15 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Honvéd (88%) · Honvéd at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 10

Honvéd>99¢Ryvex<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Honvéd

Consensus Traders

Honvéd 88%

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 100¢

+91% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralHonvéd at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Honvéd

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Honvéd100%

Ryvex0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Honvéd15 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares10,578

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Ryvex2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,118

Combined PnL-$424.43

Honvéd — 88%Ryvex — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Honvéd. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Honvéd 88% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alpheclabs2	Honvédavg 37.7¢	$1.6K	$3.7K	+$2.1K	—
JA JabJabichCTR	Ryvexavg 62.8¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$424.02	—
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Honvédavg 73.1¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$629.41	—
31 319113331313111	Honvédavg 67¢	$1.0K	$948.87	-$55.94	—
GA Gaditima	Honvédavg 52.8¢	$597.29	$542.74	-$54.55	—
CI cigarettes	Honvédavg 51¢	$237.77	$447.7	+$209.93	—
38 38791873984189	Honvédavg 44.2¢	$1.3K	$282.04	+$19.23	—
AM ameisgoat11	Honvédavg 67.9¢	$232.21	$231.08	+$22.62	—
LR lryyy	Honvédavg 41¢	$68.27	$133.55	+$65.27	—
OM omnibus-076daa	Honvédavg 43.4¢	$232.45	$110.41	+$9.62	—
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Honvédavg 71¢	$95.94	$64.19	-$31.76	—
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Honvédavg 30.6¢	$126.37	$60.02	+$21.28	—
SH shiifoo<$100	Honvédavg 52.9¢	$38.77	$49.57	+$18.5	—
US User7429<$100	Honvédavg 44¢	$69	$32.78	+$2.42	—
PA Pan9X	Honvédavg 68¢	$132.82	$8.14	+$0.68	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Ryvexavg 62.9¢	$5.28	$4.87	-$0.41	—
FL Flaznorp<$100	Honvédavg 44¢	$1.92	$2.05	+$0.13	—

alpheclabs2

Honvéd

Invested

$1,600.93

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

—

JabJabichCTR

Ryvex

Invested

$2,581

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$424.02

Record

—

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Honvéd

Invested

$1,798.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$629.41

Record

—

319113331313111

Honvéd

Invested

$1,004.8

Value

$948.87

PnL

-$55.94

Record

—

Gaditima

Honvéd

Invested

$597.29

Value

$542.74

PnL

-$54.55

Record

—

cigarettes

Honvéd

Invested

$237.77

Value

$447.7

PnL

+$209.93

Record

—

38791873984189

Honvéd

Invested

$1,323.25

Value

$282.04

PnL

+$19.23

Record

—

ameisgoat11

Honvéd

Invested

$232.21

Value

$231.08

PnL

+$22.62

Record

—

lryyy

Honvéd

Invested

$68.27

Value

$133.55

PnL

+$65.27

Record

—

omnibus-076daa

Honvéd

Invested

$232.45

Value

$110.41

PnL

+$9.62

Record

—

glennyorkshire<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$95.94

Value

$64.19

PnL

-$31.76

Record

—

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Honvéd

Invested

$126.37

Value

$60.02

PnL

+$21.28

Record

—

shiifoo<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$38.77

Value

$49.57

PnL

+$18.5

Record

—

User7429<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$69

Value

$32.78

PnL

+$2.42

Record

—

Pan9X

Honvéd

Invested

$132.82

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0.68

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Ryvex

Invested

$5.28

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$0.41

Record

—

Flaznorp<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$1.92

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$0.13

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralHonvéd at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Honvéd

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Honvéd. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Honvéd 88% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Honvéd wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.