Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (63%) · Vitality at 69¢ · $66K held · ends Nov 12

FURIA32¢Vitality68¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitality

Consensus Traders

Vitality 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$65.6K

Combined PnL

$18.71

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 68.5¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA32%

Vitality69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vitality10 traders

Total Value$41.9K

Total Shares61,043

Combined PnL+$182.16

FURIA6 traders

Total Value$23.4K

Total Shares74,722

Combined PnL-$163.46

Vitality — 63%FURIA — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tankfest2027	Vitalityavg 68¢	$28.9K	$29.1K	+$212.23	— 5-6 (11)
FA fantasy7788CTR	FURIAavg 31.8¢	$20.0K	$19.8K	-$218.57	42% 105-145 (250)
FK fkALG2FalconsTES	Vitalityavg 67.9¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$94.94	46% 895-1061 (1956)
SU suntori	Vitalityavg 70¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$46.35	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
Vladooos	Vitalityavg 70¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$46.02	61% 20-13 (33)
Tolkonevminus2	Vitalityavg 69¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$13.79	42% 46-63 (109)
vtcchampion52CTR	FURIAavg 30¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$29.18	48% 853-909 (1762)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR	FURIAavg 30¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$24.22	— 0-6 (6)
DumplingBMF	Vitalityavg 69¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$10	1% 1-117 (118)
RR rrooster	Vitalityavg 69¢	$690	$685	-$5	40% 23-35 (58)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Vitalityavg 69.1¢	$363.83	$360.75	-$3.08	56% 3878-3042 (6920)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Vitalityavg 57.5¢	$481.44	$260.18	-$2.94	55% 367-301 (668)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 57.5¢	$157.51	$187.61	+$48.29
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 40.2¢	$92.64	$72.57	-$51.22
PA papaebalCTR	FURIAavg 30¢	$182.69	$182.69	-$0	1% 1-102 (103)
KI kiyrgx	Vitalityavg 70¢	$178.94	$177.66	-$1.28	—
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR	FURIAavg 31¢	$151.34	$153.78	+$2.44	0% 0-28 (28)
YI yishiwuchengCTR<$100	FURIAavg 31¢	$45.26	$44.53	-$0.73	57% 39-30 (69)
GH ghorrock<$100	Vitalityavg 67¢	$37.06	$37.56	+$0.5	55% 729-596 (1325)

tankfest2027

Vitality

Invested

$28,862.88

Value

$29.1K

PnL

+$212.23

Record

—

5-6 (11)

fantasy7788CTR

FURIA

Invested

$20,000

Value

$19.8K

PnL

-$218.57

Record

42%

105-145 (250)

fkALG2FalconsTES

Vitality

Invested

$3,935.33

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$94.94

Record

46%

895-1061 (1956)

suntori

Vitality

Invested

$2,208.91

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$46.35

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Vladooos

Vitality

Invested

$2,147.5

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$46.02

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

Tolkonevminus2

Vitality

Invested

$1,902.43

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$13.79

Record

42%

46-63 (109)

vtcchampion52CTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,751.05

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$29.18

Record

48%

853-909 (1762)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,453.22

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$24.22

Record

—

0-6 (6)

DumplingBMF

Vitality

Invested

$1,380

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$10

Record

1-117 (118)

rrooster

Vitality

Invested

$690

Value

$685

PnL

-$5

Record

40%

23-35 (58)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Vitality

Invested

$363.83

Value

$360.75

PnL

-$3.08

Record

56%

3878-3042 (6920)

NotJumpARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$481.44

Value

$260.18

PnL

-$2.94

Record

55%

367-301 (668)

Both legs:

Vitality$157.5157.5¢+$48.29

FURIA$92.6440.2¢-$51.22

papaebalCTR

FURIA

Invested

$182.69

Value

$182.69

PnL

-$0

Record

1-102 (103)

kiyrgx

Vitality

Invested

$178.94

Value

$177.66

PnL

-$1.28

Record

—

Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR

FURIA

Invested

$151.34

Value

$153.78

PnL

+$2.44

Record

0-28 (28)

yishiwuchengCTR<$100

FURIA

Invested

$45.26

Value

$44.53

PnL

-$0.73

Record

57%

39-30 (69)

ghorrock<$100

Vitality

Invested

$37.06

Value

$37.56

PnL

+$0.5

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitality wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.