Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - European Pro League Group C

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold FORZE Reload (78%) · FORZE Reload at 73¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 10

FORZE Reload73¢MOUZ NXT27¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FORZE Reload

Consensus Traders

FORZE Reload 78%

Total Value

$27.6K

Combined PnL

$74.61

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 72.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFORZE Reload at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FORZE Reload

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

FORZE Reload73%

MOUZ NXT28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FORZE Reload7 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares28,077

Combined PnL-$386.38

MOUZ NXT2 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares26,228

Combined PnL+$460.99

FORZE Reload — 78%MOUZ NXT — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI Wiretransferxyz	FORZE Reloadavg 74¢	$18.6K	$18.2K	-$374.61	56% 378-298 (676)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	MOUZ NXTavg 25.7¢	$6.7K	$7.2K	+$460.53	53% 120-105 (225)
SE sentrio	FORZE Reloadavg 74¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$9.06	29% 155-375 (530)
IW iWasEnough	FORZE Reloadavg 74¢	$539.72	$521.49	-$18.23	—
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	FORZE Reloadavg 74¢	$296	$294	-$2	8% 71-770 (841)
PA Pan9X<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 74.6¢	$25.36	$19.58	-$0.68	48% 406-439 (845)
VeryLucky888<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 71¢	$17.34	$17.46	+$0.12	48% 208-228 (436)
FL Flaznorp<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 72¢	$5.7	$5.66	-$0.04	50% 1378-1396 (2774)
CR crmannetjeCTR<$100	MOUZ NXTavg 26¢	$4.79	$5.25	+$0.46	— 1-16 (17)

Wiretransferxyz

FORZE Reload

Invested

$18,555.28

Value

$18.2K

PnL

-$374.61

Record

56%

378-298 (676)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$6,746.97

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$460.53

Record

53%

120-105 (225)

sentrio

FORZE Reload

Invested

$1,340.4

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$9.06

Record

29%

155-375 (530)

iWasEnough

FORZE Reload

Invested

$539.72

Value

$521.49

PnL

-$18.23

Record

—

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

FORZE Reload

Invested

$296

Value

$294

PnL

-$2

Record

71-770 (841)

Pan9X<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$25.36

Value

$19.58

PnL

-$0.68

Record

48%

406-439 (845)

VeryLucky888<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$17.34

Value

$17.46

PnL

+$0.12

Record

48%

208-228 (436)

Flaznorp<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.66

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

1378-1396 (2774)

crmannetjeCTR<$100

MOUZ NXT

Invested

$4.79

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.46

Record

—

1-16 (17)

Research grade

NeutralFORZE Reload at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FORZE Reload

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FORZE Reload wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.