Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

8 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold 100 Thieves (36%) · 100 Thieves at 59¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 15

Eternal Fire42¢100 Thieves58¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

100 Thieves

Consensus Traders

100 Thieves 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

-$65.76

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 58.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Neutral100 Thieves at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

100 Thieves

8 of 22 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Eternal Fire42%

100 Thieves59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

100 Thieves8 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares11,596

Combined PnL-$137.06

Eternal Fire14 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares6,228

Combined PnL+$71.3

100 Thieves — 36%Eternal Fire — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on 100 Thieves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEternal Fire 57% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedEternal Fire 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Eternal Fire 60% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	100 Thievesavg 55.9¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$6.41	46% 621-730 (1351)
NO nobody2somebody	100 Thievesavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$90	45% 9-11 (20)
JU JuiceFarm	100 Thievesavg 58.4¢	$773.22	$727.65	-$45.58	54% 59-50 (109)
VeryLucky888CTR	Eternal Fireavg 40¢	$559.98	$550	+$52.49	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
JA JabJabich	100 Thievesavg 57¢	$553.76	$539.19	-$14.57	35% 45-83 (128)
GA GaditimaCTR	Eternal Fireavg 44¢	$483.91	$489.5	+$5.59	49% 383-400 (783)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Eternal Fireavg 47.6¢	$395.66	$324.64	+$1.05	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 52.7¢	$154.67	$171.82	+$23.41
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 47.6¢	$175.17	$152.81	-$22.36
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Eternal Fireavg 42.6¢	$275.22	$267.81	-$7.41	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
alpheclabs2CTR	Eternal Fireavg 40.6¢	$225.84	$230.89	+$5.05	45% 363-445 (808)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Eternal Fireavg 41¢	$204.5	$219.46	+$14.96	55% 174-144 (318)
PU purplegattoCTR	Eternal Fireavg 44.7¢	$210.62	$209.74	-$0.88	68% 2675-1265 (3940)
38 38791873984189CTR	Eternal Fireavg 43.4¢	$658.36	$208.59	-$3.77	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
CI cigarettesCTR	Eternal Fireavg 43.8¢	$153.13	$145.25	-$7.88	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
shekelmeister	100 Thievesavg 55¢	$139.08	$141.61	+$2.53	47% 427-476 (903)
poshposhARB<$100	100 Thievesavg 52¢	$126.86	$136.4	+$9.54	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 52¢	$69.27	$74.6	+$5.33
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 41¢	$57.59	$61.81	+$4.21
lma0o0o0o	100 Thievesavg 54.7¢	$113.11	$115.81	+$2.71	52% 50-46 (96)
Stickman22CTR	Eternal Fireavg 39¢	$99.82	$112.61	+$12.8	50% 16-16 (32)
BI biying99999CTR	Eternal Fireavg 42¢	$102.04	$100.72	-$1.32	40% 152-227 (379)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 41.1¢	$84.85	$85.78	+$0.93	35% 628-1146 (1774)
itwasawholething<$100	100 Thievesavg 54¢	$60.33	$62.57	+$2.23	35% 8-15 (23)
KA KaczkaCTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 43¢	$35	$35.81	+$0.81	9% 21-204 (225)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 42¢	$30.26	$29.89	-$0.36	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Eternal Fireavg 40.5¢	$12.15	$12.45	+$0.3	46% 467-554 (1021)
TH thatsabing0<$100	100 Thievesavg 64¢	$5.6	$4.81	-$0.79	62% 265-160 (425)

omnibus-076daa

100 Thieves

Invested

$3,831.4

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$6.41

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

nobody2somebody

100 Thieves

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$90

Record

45%

9-11 (20)

JuiceFarm

100 Thieves

Invested

$773.22

Value

$727.65

PnL

-$45.58

Record

54%

59-50 (109)

VeryLucky888CTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$559.98

Value

$550

PnL

+$52.49

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

JabJabich

100 Thieves

Invested

$553.76

Value

$539.19

PnL

-$14.57

Record

35%

45-83 (128)

GaditimaCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$483.91

Value

$489.5

PnL

+$5.59

Record

49%

383-400 (783)

NotJumpARB<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$395.66

Value

$324.64

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

Both legs:

100 Thieves$154.6752.7¢+$23.41

Eternal Fire$175.1747.6¢-$22.36

topdogbigboiCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$275.22

Value

$267.81

PnL

-$7.41

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

alpheclabs2CTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$225.84

Value

$230.89

PnL

+$5.05

Record

45%

363-445 (808)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$204.5

Value

$219.46

PnL

+$14.96

Record

55%

174-144 (318)

purplegattoCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$210.62

Value

$209.74

PnL

-$0.88

Record

68%

2675-1265 (3940)

38791873984189CTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$658.36

Value

$208.59

PnL

-$3.77

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

cigarettesCTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$153.13

Value

$145.25

PnL

-$7.88

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

shekelmeister

100 Thieves

Invested

$139.08

Value

$141.61

PnL

+$2.53

Record

47%

427-476 (903)

poshposhARB<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$126.86

Value

$136.4

PnL

+$9.54

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

Both legs:

100 Thieves$69.2752¢+$5.33

Eternal Fire$57.5941¢+$4.21

lma0o0o0o

100 Thieves

Invested

$113.11

Value

$115.81

PnL

+$2.71

Record

52%

50-46 (96)

Stickman22CTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$99.82

Value

$112.61

PnL

+$12.8

Record

50%

16-16 (32)

biying99999CTR

Eternal Fire

Invested

$102.04

Value

$100.72

PnL

-$1.32

Record

40%

152-227 (379)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$84.85

Value

$85.78

PnL

+$0.93

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

itwasawholething<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$60.33

Value

$62.57

PnL

+$2.23

Record

35%

8-15 (23)

KaczkaCTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$35

Value

$35.81

PnL

+$0.81

Record

21-204 (225)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$30.26

Value

$29.89

PnL

-$0.36

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$12.15

Value

$12.45

PnL

+$0.3

Record

46%

467-554 (1021)

thatsabing0<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$5.6

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$0.79

Record

62%

265-160 (425)

Research grade

Neutral100 Thieves at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

100 Thieves

8 of 22 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on 100 Thieves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEternal Fire 57% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedEternal Fire 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Eternal Fire 60% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 100 Thieves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.