Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold ex-INOX Division, while the market favors Brute (65%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Brute vs ex-INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold ex-INOX Division (40%) · ex-INOX Division at 35¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Brute65¢ex-INOX Division35¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

ex-INOX Division

Consensus Traders

ex-INOX Division 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$394.97

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 35¢

-28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Neutralex-INOX Division at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

ex-INOX Division

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Brute 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Brute65%

ex-INOX Division35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

ex-INOX Division4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares7,302

Combined PnL-$544.67

Brute6 traders

Total Value$673.07

Total Shares1,087

Combined PnL+$149.7

ex-INOX Division — 40%Brute — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on ex-INOX Division. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBrute 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Brute 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JabJabichCTR	ex-INOX Divisionavg 49.4¢	$2.3K	$1.7K	-$678.16	35% 45-83 (128)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	ex-INOX Divisionavg 45.7¢	$731.77	$816	+$84.23	54% 59-50 (109)
KA Kaczka	Bruteavg 47.8¢	$435	$591.59	+$156.59	9% 21-204 (225)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	ex-INOX Divisionavg 52.8¢	$505.17	$520.03	+$14.86	56% 4160-3248 (7408)
└ ex-INOX Division leg	ex-INOX Divisionavg 52.8¢	$301.41	$308.06	+$6.65
└ Brute leg	Bruteavg 44.2¢	$203.76	$211.97	+$8.21
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	ex-INOX Divisionavg 47.6¢	$292.13	$331.14	+$39.02	55% 174-144 (318)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	ex-INOX Divisionavg 50¢	$262.5	$254.63	-$7.87	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
└ ex-INOX Division leg	ex-INOX Divisionavg 50¢	$131.25	$133.88	+$2.63
└ Brute leg	Bruteavg 50¢	$131.25	$120.75	-$10.5
lma0o0o0oCTR	ex-INOX Divisionavg 51.3¢	$191.78	$202.02	+$10.25	52% 50-46 (96)
GA Gaditima<$100	Bruteavg 51¢	$51	$46	-$5	49% 383-400 (783)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bruteavg 49.8¢	$23.88	$22.08	-$1.8	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Bruteavg 43.9¢	$7.87	$8.25	+$0.38	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Bruteavg 50.4¢	$3.12	$2.85	-$0.27	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Bruteavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.3	-$0.2	48% 2518-2728 (5246)

JabJabichCTR

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$2,328.31

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$678.16

Record

35%

45-83 (128)

JuiceFarmCTR

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$731.77

Value

$816

PnL

+$84.23

Record

54%

59-50 (109)

Kaczka

Brute

Invested

$435

Value

$591.59

PnL

+$156.59

Record

21-204 (225)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$505.17

Value

$520.03

PnL

+$14.86

Record

56%

4160-3248 (7408)

Both legs:

ex-INOX Division$301.4152.8¢+$6.65

Brute$203.7644.2¢+$8.21

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$292.13

Value

$331.14

PnL

+$39.02

Record

55%

174-144 (318)

NotJumpARB<$100

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$262.5

Value

$254.63

PnL

-$7.87

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

Both legs:

ex-INOX Division$131.2550¢+$2.63

Brute$131.2550¢-$10.5

lma0o0o0oCTR

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$191.78

Value

$202.02

PnL

+$10.25

Record

52%

50-46 (96)

Gaditima<$100

Brute

Invested

$51

Value

$46

PnL

-$5

Record

49%

383-400 (783)

Pan9X<$100

Brute

Invested

$23.88

Value

$22.08

PnL

-$1.8

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

topdogbigboi<$100

Brute

Invested

$7.87

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$0.38

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

Flaznorp<$100

Brute

Invested

$3.12

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.27

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

ferdinand2<$100

Brute

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

Research grade

Neutralex-INOX Division at 35%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

ex-INOX Division

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Brute 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on ex-INOX Division. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBrute 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Brute 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that ex-INOX Division wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.