Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B

24 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Gaming (62%) · Aurora Gaming at 64¢ · $190K held · ends Nov 3

Aurora Gaming64¢G236¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aurora Gaming

Consensus Traders

Aurora Gaming 62%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$190.4K

Combined PnL

$3.1K

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 63.5¢

+13% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralAurora Gaming at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Gaming

24 of 39 top traders (62%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora Gaming64%

G237%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aurora Gaming24 traders

Total Value$123.5K

Total Shares176,045

Combined PnL+$30.3K

G215 traders

Total Value$47.7K

Total Shares174,150

Combined PnL$-27.2K

Aurora Gaming — 62%G2 — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Aurora Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAurora Gaming 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpAurora Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrG2 55% · 29

Diverging

Hand-pickedAurora Gaming 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Aurora Gaming 54% · 39

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA jakepaulthegoat2008	Aurora Gamingavg 56¢	$37.3K	$51.6K	+$14.2K	50% 7355-7474 (14829)
drainedandpoor	Aurora Gamingavg 56¢	$40.0K	$29.8K	+$7.4K	48% 626-667 (1293)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	G2avg 43.7¢	$79.9K	$20.4K	$-14.5K	56% 207-160 (367)
CORGIICTR	G2avg 44¢	$18.4K	$10.7K	$-7.7K	41% 398-578 (976)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 70¢	$10.3K	$9.9K	-$364.53	54% 2561-2189 (4750)
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 70¢	$8.2K	$7.5K	-$769.23
└ G2 leg	G2avg 30.4¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$404.7
NE Netrol	Aurora Gamingavg 57¢	$5.9K	$8.0K	+$2.1K	39% 593-910 (1503)
Nooserac	Aurora Gamingavg 56¢	$10.0K	$7.5K	+$1.9K	52% 5902-5508 (11410)
TR TrippleEX	Aurora Gamingavg 57¢	$5.7K	$7.5K	+$1.8K	58% 310-220 (530)
relativesignificanceCTR	G2avg 44.5¢	$7.1K	$5.3K	$-1.8K	56% 126-98 (224)
FeedTheBigBirdCTR	G2avg 43¢	$6.1K	$4.7K	$-1.4K	47% 54-62 (116)
FE fengdubisheng117CTR	G2avg 33.4¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$14.08	39% 20-31 (51)
Satanishippie	Aurora Gamingavg 57.4¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	-$46.06	48% 326-353 (679)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	Aurora Gamingavg 59¢	$2.5K	$3.2K	+$656.76	51% 368-358 (726)
RA Rayaya	Aurora Gamingavg 60¢	$2.4K	$3.0K	+$580.02	60% 1195-785 (1980)
DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100	G2avg 29.5¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	-$189.56	53% 2082-1840 (3922)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 29.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	-$198.91
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 67¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$9.35
minjiARB<$100	G2avg 29.6¢	$3.1K	$2.8K	-$367.12	52% 1809-1667 (3476)
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 77.8¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$23.91
└ G2 leg	G2avg 29.6¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$343.2
NO nobody2somebody	Aurora Gamingavg 55¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$420	52% 645-601 (1246)
VeryLucky888	Aurora Gamingavg 55¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$351.5	58% 43911-31950 (75861)
saintaphextwin	Aurora Gamingavg 55¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	+$468.39	39% 397-633 (1030)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	G2avg 29.9¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$214.34	56% 7505-6007 (13512)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 29.9¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	-$219.11
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 79¢	$753.7	$758.47	+$4.77
TH TheVeteran77CTR	G2avg 41.1¢	$2.1K	$1.3K	-$784.55	48% 244-266 (510)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 65.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$32.19	52% 8305-7539 (15844)
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 65.1¢	$785.77	$778.27	-$7.5
└ G2 leg	G2avg 31.6¢	$317.34	$357.03	+$39.7
forsenxd	Aurora Gamingavg 55¢	$547.46	$772.21	+$224.75	53% 1080-948 (2028)
OM omnibus-076daa	Aurora Gamingavg 63.2¢	$693.7	$751.06	+$57.36	50% 19935-20301 (40236)
CR Crazyboy77	Aurora Gamingavg 56¢	$999.99	$744.99	+$185	52% 192-176 (368)

jakepaulthegoat2008

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$37,340.76

Value

$51.6K

PnL

+$14.2K

Record

50%

7355-7474 (14829)

drainedandpoor

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$40,000

Value

$29.8K

PnL

+$7.4K

Record

48%

626-667 (1293)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Invested

$79,912.52

Value

$20.4K

PnL

$-14.5K

Record

56%

207-160 (367)

CORGIICTR

Invested

$18,430.72

Value

$10.7K

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

41%

398-578 (976)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$10,273.58

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$364.53

Record

54%

2561-2189 (4750)

Both legs:

Aurora Gaming$8,237.7270¢-$769.23

G2$2,035.8530.4¢+$404.7

Netrol

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$5,894.53

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

39%

593-910 (1503)

Nooserac

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$10,000

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

52%

5902-5508 (11410)

TrippleEX

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$5,700

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

58%

310-220 (530)

relativesignificanceCTR

Invested

$7,112.51

Value

$5.3K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

56%

126-98 (224)

FeedTheBigBirdCTR

Invested

$6,145.08

Value

$4.7K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

47%

54-62 (116)

fengdubisheng117CTR

Invested

$4,097.17

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$14.08

Record

39%

20-31 (51)

Satanishippie

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$2,800

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$46.06

Record

48%

326-353 (679)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$2,499.93

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$656.76

Record

51%

368-358 (726)

Rayaya

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$2,399.98

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$580.02

Record

60%

1195-785 (1980)

DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100

Invested

$2,726.41

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$189.56

Record

53%

2082-1840 (3922)

Both legs:

G2$1,473.9129.5¢-$198.91

Aurora Gaming$1,252.567¢+$9.35

minjiARB<$100

Invested

$3,126.13

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$367.12

Record

52%

1809-1667 (3476)

Both legs:

Aurora Gaming$1,464.3877.8¢-$23.91

G2$1,661.7529.6¢-$343.2

nobody2somebody

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,924.99

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$420

Record

52%

645-601 (1246)

VeryLucky888

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,865.47

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$351.5

Record

58%

43911-31950 (75861)

saintaphextwin

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$2,401.98

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$468.39

Record

39%

397-633 (1030)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Invested

$1,999.04

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$214.34

Record

56%

7505-6007 (13512)

Both legs:

G2$1,495.6429.9¢-$219.11

Aurora Gaming$753.779¢+$4.77

TheVeteran77CTR

Invested

$2,070.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$784.55

Record

48%

244-266 (510)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,103.11

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$32.19

Record

52%

8305-7539 (15844)

Both legs:

Aurora Gaming$785.7765.1¢-$7.5

G2$317.3431.6¢+$39.7

forsenxd

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$547.46

Value

$772.21

PnL

+$224.75

Record

53%

1080-948 (2028)

omnibus-076daa

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$693.7

Value

$751.06

PnL

+$57.36

Record

50%

19935-20301 (40236)

Crazyboy77

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$999.99

Value

$744.99

PnL

+$185

Record

52%

192-176 (368)

Research grade

NeutralAurora Gaming at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Gaming

24 of 39 top traders (62%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Aurora Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAurora Gaming 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpAurora Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrG2 55% · 29

Diverging

Hand-pickedAurora Gaming 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Aurora Gaming 54% · 39

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aurora Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.