Counter-Strike: 33 vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Eternal Fire (58%) · Eternal Fire at 95¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 16

336¢Eternal Fire94¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eternal Fire

Consensus Traders

Eternal Fire 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

$771.52

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 94.5¢

+33% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

336%

Eternal Fire95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eternal Fire7 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares17,015

Combined PnL+$303

335 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares12,240

Combined PnL+$468.53

Eternal Fire — 58%33 — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Eternal Fire. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctr33 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 100033 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
llllllllloooo	Eternal Fireavg 71¢	$7.1K	$6.7K	-$372.92	16% 19-101 (120)
AA aaaa298	Eternal Fireavg 69.6¢	$2.8K	$3.7K	+$880.65	2% 7-307 (314)
VI vibing123CTR	33avg 29¢	$3.0K	$3.5K	+$473.69	61% 1209-766 (1975)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Eternal Fireavg 70.6¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$207.52	56% 4181-3271 (7452)
CC ccllar	Eternal Fireavg 74.6¢	$384.23	$351.8	-$20.74	43% 62-81 (143)
NO nobody2somebodyCTR	33avg 29¢	$223.21	$251.92	+$28.7	48% 12-13 (25)
TH thatsabing0CTR	33avg 31¢	$216.64	$228.72	+$12.08	63% 280-166 (446)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Eternal Fireavg 50¢	$262.5	$221.59	-$5.91	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
└ Eternal Fire leg	Eternal Fireavg 50¢	$131.25	$176.59	+$45.34
└ 33 leg	33avg 50¢	$68.75	$45	-$51.25
TO TommyLeePeeca	Eternal Fireavg 89¢	$1.9K	$98.33	+$25.2	23% 73-238 (311)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	33avg 24.8¢	$79.73	$33.76	-$45.98	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
SU suntori<$100	Eternal Fireavg 72.8¢	$19.04	$17.78	-$1.26	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Eternal Fireavg 72¢	$7.2	$6.8	-$0.4	40% 354-534 (888)
II iii252CTR<$100	33avg 8¢	$0.16	$0.19	+$0.03	1% 4-426 (430)

llllllllloooo

Eternal Fire

Invested

$7,100

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$372.92

Record

16%

19-101 (120)

aaaa298

Eternal Fire

Invested

$2,819.82

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$880.65

Record

7-307 (314)

vibing123CTR

Invested

$3,026.49

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$473.69

Record

61%

1209-766 (1975)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Eternal Fire

Invested

$2,841.61

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$207.52

Record

56%

4181-3271 (7452)

ccllar

Eternal Fire

Invested

$384.23

Value

$351.8

PnL

-$20.74

Record

43%

62-81 (143)

nobody2somebodyCTR

Invested

$223.21

Value

$251.92

PnL

+$28.7

Record

48%

12-13 (25)

thatsabing0CTR

Invested

$216.64

Value

$228.72

PnL

+$12.08

Record

63%

280-166 (446)

NotJumpARB<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$262.5

Value

$221.59

PnL

-$5.91

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Both legs:

Eternal Fire$131.2550¢+$45.34

33$68.7550¢-$51.25

TommyLeePeeca

Eternal Fire

Invested

$1,910.42

Value

$98.33

PnL

+$25.2

Record

23%

73-238 (311)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$79.73

Value

$33.76

PnL

-$45.98

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

suntori<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$19.04

Value

$17.78

PnL

-$1.26

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Eternal Fire

Invested

$7.2

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

40%

354-534 (888)

iii252CTR<$100

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.03

Record

4-426 (430)

Research grade

NeutralEternal Fire at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Eternal Fire

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Eternal Fire. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctr33 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 100033 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eternal Fire wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.